用户名:
密 码:
忘记密码?
繁体中文  
 
版主:黑木崖
 · 九阳全新免清洗型豆浆机 全美最低
 
俄国会夺取连接加里林格勒和白俄罗斯的苏瓦儿基吗?
送交者:  2017年04月24日15:12:12 于 [世界军事论坛] 发送悄悄话

The Suwalki Gap — the potential European flashpoint Vladimir Putin is keeping a close eye on

The Suwalki Gap

IT’S one of the most peaceful corners of Europe. Quiet country roads lead through immaculate towns, skim past lakes and wind their way around virginal forests dotted with oak and spruce.

But defence watchers say this thin strip of land, fully within the European Union, could be a flashpoint of future military action between Russia and the US.

A strategic affairs analyst has even raised the prospect that an emboldened Russia, intent on pushing the Washington-led NATO military alliance away from its territory, could drop a nuclear bomb on the isolated sliver of land.

Known as the ‘Suwalki Gap’, this 80km patch of relatively flat, difficult to defend countryside, straddles Poland and Lithuania.

It is the only land connection between the Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia — all of which are in the EU and NATO — and their European allies.

The Polish side of the so-called 'Suwalki Gap', an 80-kilometre stretch of Polish-Lithuanian border sandwiched between Kaliningrad and Belarus which is strategically vital to NATO. Picture: AFP

The Polish side of the so-called 'Suwalki Gap', an 80-kilometre stretch of Polish-Lithuanian border sandwiched between Kaliningrad and Belarus which is strategically vital to NATO. Picture: AFPSource:AFP

On either end of the Suwalki Gap is Putin. To the west the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, stuffed to the gills with nuclear missiles, and to the east Moscow’s close ally Belarus.

It’s a nightmare pinch point for NATO and its Baltic partners.

“This gap could be easily overcome. Russia has very powerful forces stationed in Kaliningrad and with troops from Belarus it could be quickly closed,” Alexy Muraviev, a Russian strategic defence affairs expert from Curtin University told news.com.au.

In 2015, Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, the commanding general of the US Army in Europe speculated on a scenario where Moscow shut the Gap under the cover of a military exercise.

“You get thousands of Russian troops on both ends of the Suwalki Gap, so there’s a potential for them to transition from an exercise to an operation — that’s our concern.”

Indeed, the area has become one of the most militarised in Europe with Russia and the US heavily armed and cheek by jowl.

The vulnerable Suwalki Gap, an isolated NATO land bridge between Russia and Moscow aligned Belarus

The vulnerable Suwalki Gap, an isolated NATO land bridge between Russia and Moscow aligned BelarusSource:Supplied

Emeritus professor of strategic studies at Australian National University, Paul Dibb, said the West’s military expansion onto Moscow’s doorstep has never sat well with Russia.

“Putin viewed the disintegration of the former Soviet Union as the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of last century. My view is when Russia was on its knees [following the end of the Cold War] it was provocative to expand NATO’s borders into the former Soviet stratosphere,” he said.

“The distance between the nearest NATO airfield in Estonia to St Petersburg is the same distance from Canberra to Cooma and I can tell you if we had Indonesian jets in Cooma we’d be doing something about it.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin delivers a speech at the Baltiysk naval base in Kaliningrad. Picture: AFP.

Russian President Vladimir Putin delivers a speech at the Baltiysk naval base in Kaliningrad. Picture: AFP.Source:AFP

Prof Muraviev agreed and added that the Baltic States’ independence had deprived Russia of access to strategically vital ports on the Baltic Sea.

Yet, this was precisely the reason why the Baltic States had embraced NATO.

“Russia has had an eye on unimpeded access to Baltic since the 17th century and the Baltics fear Russia annexing them,” he said.

While Kaliningrad, next to the Gap, meant Russia still had a presence on the Baltic Sea, it was an imperfect pocket of territory.

Moscow sees the exclave as being vulnerable, surrounded by NATO members. How much easier (and less humiliating) would it be if Russia didn’t have to ask permission from Lithuania — formerly part of the USSR — to move troops in and out of Kaliningrad.

Prof Dibb said the instability in European political could encourage Putin to give it a go.

“These are pitifully small countries with pitifully small militaries. They have been rolled over by the Nazis and the Red Army and the temptation for Putin would be there is low hanging fruit for him.”

US and Polish troops take part in training drills in Poland this month. Picture: AFP.

US and Polish troops take part in training drills in Poland this month. Picture: AFP.Source:AFP

To discourage Putin, the states have strengthened their borders while NATO has sent three battalions of around 3000 troops to the Baltic.

Another 1000 US troops are stationed in eastern Poland close to the Suwalki Gap.

The military boost came after a 2016 report by the US RAND think-tank said without reinforcements it would take Russia just 60 hours to capture the Estonian and Latvian capitals.

Prof Dibb said he doubted NATO’s actions would make much difference to a determined Russia. “Putin can deploy 150,000 troops almost instantaneously into any of the Baltic countries. What are three NATO battalions against 150,000 troops?”

He had spoken to a Russia watcher, Prof Dibb remarked, who said it would be unthinkable for a nuclear weapon to be used the Baltics. But, he was told, a bomb could conceivably be detonated in a more remote area to demonstrate Russia’s resolve. “I said, could that be on the Suwalki Gap to show they were serious? He didn’t answer,” said Prof Dibb.

If Russia did push into the Baltics and block the Suwalki Gap, NATO would almost certainly have to respond or risk becoming irrelevant. Estonia and Poland are proportionally some of the biggest contributors to NATO.

The Government in Tallinn, Estonia’s capital, feels under threat from Moscow.

The Government in Tallinn, Estonia’s capital, feels under threat from Moscow.Source:Supplied

Prof Muraviev said he doubted Moscow would do a Crimea and annex the Baltics.

“Russia would have no problem overrunning the Baltics but the geopolitical fallout would offset any territorial gains. It would be political suicide.”

However, the biggest reason holding Russia back might not be US or European troops stationed on its borders — but the Baltic people themselves.

While there are substantial numbers of ethnic Russians in the Baltics, there are far fewer than in parts of Ukraine.

“Russia would be met at best with neutral hostility and at worst protracted armed [guerilla] conflict. The Soviets experienced this in the Baltics in the 40s and 50s and they don’t want it to happen again.”

That’s not to say war couldn’t happen. If NATO moved offensive rather the defensive machinery into the Baltics, or blocked sea lanes or access to Kaliningrad, Putin’s troops could mass at the Gap, daring the west to cross.

But, Prof Muraviev fears most what isn’t planned for. The accidental escalation that could come with having opposing forces so close to one another.

“There’s a mutual vulnerability there, Russians feel vulnerable to NATO forces, the Baltics feel vulnerable to massive Russia. When you have mutual distrust there is an ongoing risk of a military escalation.”

NATO says it’s determined to keep the Suwalki Gap open.

“We are committed to the sovereignty of Lithuania, the sovereignty of Poland and all the other countries, so we will do whatever it takes to re-establish that,” Lt Gen Hodges told NBC.

“It’s not inevitable that it goes to a Third World War. Nobody wants that, including the Russians.”


0%(0)
100%(2)
缂傚倸鍊烽悞锕傘€冮幇鏉跨闁跨噦鎷� 闂傚倷绀侀幉锟犳偄椤掑嫬绠柨鐕傛嫹 (闂傚倸饪撮崑鍕洪妶澶婄疇婵せ鍋撻柛鈹惧亾濡炪倖宸婚崑鎾淬亜閿旂偓鏆┑鈩冩尦閺佹捇鏁撻敓锟�): 闂備浇顕уù鐑姐€傞鈧獮蹇涙晸閿燂拷 闂傚倷鐒﹀鍧楀闯椤栫偛绠柨鐕傛嫹 (闂傚倸饪撮崑鍕洪妶澶婄疇婵せ鍋撻柛鈹惧亾濡炪倖宸婚崑鎾淬亜閿旂偓鏆┑鈩冩尦閺佹捇鏁撻敓锟�): 濠电姷鏁搁崑娑⑺囬銏犵鐎光偓閸曨偉鍩炴繛瀵稿Т椤戝懎螞濮椻偓閺岀喎鈻撻崹顔界亶闂佸搫妫楃换姗€寮婚悢鍛婄秶闁绘劦鍓欓锟�
标 题 (必选项):
内 容 (选填项):

濠电姷鏁搁崑娑㈡偋閸涱垰绶ゅ┑鐘宠壘缁犳岸鏌曢崼婵愭Ц闁告劏鍋撻梻浣虹帛閹哥ǹ霉妞嬪孩鍏滈柍褝鎷�
闂備浇顕х€涒晝绮欓幒妤€桅闁绘劗鏁哥粈濠囨煥閻曞倹瀚�
闂備浇顕х€涒晝绮欓幒妞尖偓鍐川閼割兛姹楅梺璺ㄥ櫐閹凤拷
实用资讯
北美最大最全的折扣机票网站
美国名厂保健品一级代理,花旗参,维他命,鱼油,卵磷脂,30天退货保证.买百免邮.
一周点击热帖 更多>>
1 闂備礁鎼悧婊勭濠靛棊缂氶柣銏⑶圭涵鈧繛杈剧悼鏋悗锝傚亾闂佽崵濮撮鍕矆娓氣偓閹啴濮€閿涘嫧鏋栭柣鐘叉搐濡﹪宕甸妶澶嬬厱闊洤顑呮俊鍧楁煙椤斿吋瀵絀闂備焦瀵х粙鎴炵附閺冨倻绠斿鑸靛姇閸欏﹥銇勯弽銊х煂婵炲鎷� eastwest
2 濠电偛顕慨顓㈠磻閹炬枼妲堥柡鍌濇硶婢ф盯鏌¢崪浣镐喊鐎殿喖鐏氶妶锕傚垂椤旂厧绠i梺鑽ゅС鐠佹煡寮插⿰鍫晢闁跨噦鎷�20闂備胶枪椤戝棝鎳濇ィ鍐ㄎуù鐘差儏閻忚櫕绻濇繝鍌涘櫣妞ゃ儲锕㈤弻锝呂旈崟顐ゆ濠电偛鐗婇崹鍨暦濞嗘挻鏅搁柨鐕傛嫹 eastwest
3 缂傚倸鍊稿ú銈嗩殽閹间焦鍋橀柣鏃囨閻滆霉閿濆懏鎯堝┑顔ㄥ洦鐓欐い鏍ㄧ啲瀹搞儳鈧灚婢樺Λ婵嬪极瀹ュ拋娼╂い鎺戝€瑰▓顔界箾鐎涙ḿ鐭婃俊顐㈩嚟濡叉劙鏁撻敓锟�99%闂備礁鎼ˇ顓㈠磿閹绢喖鍚规繝濠傚閳绘梹銇勯幘璺轰沪缂佸偊鎷� eastwest
4 濠电偛鐡ㄧ划搴ㄥ磿閵堝鍎嶆い鏍仜缁秹鏌曟径娑氱暠鐞氭岸鏌i悩鍙夋悙閻庢凹鍨堕、娆撳箣閿旇姤娅栧┑顔缴戦崜姘跺礉閸涘瓨鐓欐い鏍ㄧ⊕缁€鈧┑鐐插级閻楃姴鐣烽崼鏇炵闁圭儤鎸惧┃鍕⒑瑜版帗娑х紒澶嬫尦瀹曘儵宕堕浣告畬闂佽法鍣﹂幏锟� eastwest
5 濠电偞鍨堕幑浣割浖閵娧呯鐎广儱娲︾€氭岸鏌℃径瀣仴缂佷緡浜濋幈銊モ攽閹惧墎袦濠电偠鍋愭晶妤冪矙婢跺苯鍨濋柛蹇擃槸娴滅偓绻濇繝鍌氼仾濞寸姵锕㈤弻娑樜旈崨顒佸枤濠电偛鎳忛幑鍥х暦閳╁啯濯寸紒瀣仢閻熷酣姊洪悙钘夊姕缂佺粯鍔楀Σ鎰版晸閿燂拷 eastwest
6 闂佹眹鍩勯崹浼村箯閹寸姵顫曢柟鐑樺焾濞间即鏌ㄩ悤鍌涘-36濠电姰鍨归悥銏ゅ幢濞嗘劗鐣介梻浣告惈閸犳盯骞忛敓锟� eastwest
7 濠电姰鍨介·鍌涚閻愮儤鍋樺┑鐘叉处閸婂潡鎮规担鍛婅础缁炬儳銈搁弻娑㈠煛娴e憡娈悗娈垮櫍椤ユ捇鍩€椤掑喚娼愰柨姘亜閹惧瓨銇濋柡灞界焸瀹曞爼顢旈崟顒備悍濠电偞鍨堕幖鈺呭储閻撳篃鐟拔旈崘顏咃紡闂侀潧绻嗛崜婵嬎夐敓锟�-9 eastwest
8 闂備礁鎲¢〃鍡楊熆濡皷鍋撶憴鍕枙妤犵偞鎹囬獮鍥敍閿濆懏鏆ユ繝娈垮枟閿曘垽寮查懠顒備笉婵炲棙鍨堕崰鍡涙煥濠靛棙鍣归柡瀣у亾闂佸搫顦悧蹇涘箠閹炬眹鈧倿濡搁埡鍌楁嫽濡炪倖娲嶉崑鎾淬亜閿濆繑瀚� 濠电偞鍨堕幐鎼佀囬鈧弻灞解堪閸繃顥濋梺璺ㄥ櫐閹凤拷 eastwest
9 濠电偞鍨堕幐鎾磻閹炬剚鐔嗛柛锔诲幗椤庯拷-POP闂備胶绮崝鏇㈠箟閿熺姴钃熼柛銉e妿椤╂煡鏌涢埄鍐€掗柛娆愬姍閺屾盯濡烽妸銉愭捇鏌$€n亜鏆g€规洜濞€瀵粙濡搁敂璺ㄥ笡闂備礁鎲¢懝鎯瑰畡鎵虫灁闁硅揪闄勯崵鍥煥閻曞倹瀚� eastwest
10 闂備線妫跨拃锕傚垂閾忣偅娅犻柡宥庡亝婵ジ鏌熺憴鍕Е闁告埃鍋撻梺鍝勵槺閸庢劙宕归姘f瀻闁靛骏绱曢埢鏃堟煃瑜滈崜娑㈠焵椤掑喚娼愬ǎ鍥ㄦそ閵嗗懘鏁冮崒娑樻疁濡炪倕绻愮€氼喚绮婚幒鎿冩闁绘垵娲︾€氾拷 eastwest
一周回复热帖
1 濠电偞鍨跺濠氬窗閺囥埄鏁嬮柍鍝勫€婚埢鏃堝级閻愭潙顥嬮柣顓炴閳藉寮捄銊ヮ暫缂備胶鍎甸崑鎾翠繆閻愵亜鈧盯顢氳椤曪綁鎮剧仦绋夸壕闂傚牊绋戠敮銊╂煃瑜滈崜姘卞垝韫囨稑围闁秆勵殔濡﹢姊洪锝団槈闁诡喖绻橀弻娑樷枎閹烘垼鏁垮銈嗘閹凤拷 eastwest
2 闂備浇澹堥褏鎹㈠Δ浣侯浄闁割偁鍨荤粈鍐箹缁懓澧茬紒鍌氭喘閺岋綁濡搁妷銉紓闂佺偨鍎茬划搴ㄥ箯瑜版帒唯闁靛牆鎳愬Σ锝夋煟閻斿憡纾婚柣鎺炵畱鍗遍柟闂寸缁€鍡涙偣閸濆嫭鎯堟い鏂匡工閳藉骞樺畷鍥嗐儲銇勯姀鈥崇仸婵炵厧顭烽弫鎾绘晸閿燂拷 eastwest
3 闂佸搫顦弲婊堟偡閵堝鐓傛繝濠傜墕缁犳帡鎮归崫鍕儓鐞氭姊虹粙璺ㄧ闁绘鎳愬▎銏ゅΨ閳哄倹娅栭柣蹇曞仦閸庢娊鎮樻径濞掑綊鎮埀顒勫礈濞嗘挸绐楅柛娑卞枤閳绘梻鈧箍鍎遍悧鍡涘储鐎靛摜纾藉ù锝呮贡閹冲棛绱掓径瀣仢鐎规洩绻濋弫鎾绘晸閿燂拷 eastwest
4 濠电偞鍨堕幖鈺呭储閻撳篃鐟拔旀担琛℃灃闁哄鍋炴竟鍡欑矓閸ф鐓涢柛鎰典簻鏍$紒缁㈠幖閻栧ジ鐛澶婄厸濞达綀娅i崐鐐烘⒑閸涘﹤绗氬鐟版濡叉劙寮介鐐殿槺濠德板€曢鍥╃矆婢舵劖鐓欓柛顭戝亝瀹曞矂鏌嶈閸撴岸鎳濋幆褏鏆ら柨鐕傛嫹 eastwest
5 濠电偞鍨堕幐鎼佸疮閳哄啰鍗氶梺鍨儑椤╂煡鎮楅敐搴濈盎缂傚秳绶氶弻娑㈠箻瀹曞洠鏋岀紓浣介哺缁诲啰绮欐径鎰垫晣闁绘劕顕々顒€鈹戦鍡欑ɑ闁哄睙鍛潟婵炴垯鍨圭€氬淇婇妶鍛殶鐎规洖銈搁弻娑㈠Ψ閵夘垱顣肩紓浣规⒐閹告娊骞嗛崒鐐存櫢闁跨噦鎷� eastwest
6 闂備礁鎲¢〃鍡楊熆濡皷鍋撶憴鍕枙妤犵偞鎹囬獮鍥敍閿濆懏鏆ユ繝娈垮枟閿曘垽寮查懠顒備笉婵炲棙鍨堕崰鍡涙煥濠靛棙鍣归柡瀣у亾闂佸搫顦悧蹇涘箠閹炬眹鈧倿濡搁埡鍌楁嫽濡炪倖娲嶉崑鎾淬亜閿濆嫮鐭欓柡浣哥Ф娴狅箓骞嗚娴滎垶鏌i悩杈╃瓘闁瑰嚖鎷� eastwest
7 濠电姷顣介埀顒€鍟块埀顒勵棑缁辩偛顓奸崶锝呬壕闁汇垺顔栭弨浼存煏閸繃鍋ョ€殿噮鍓熼弻鍛槈濡鈧囨⒑閸涘﹦鎳嗛悘蹇d邯椤㈡瑩骞嬮悙纰樻灃闂侀€炲苯澧寸€规洘绮撻獮瀣攽閸噥鍞搁梻浣告憸婵挳篓閳ь剛绱掗幉瀣 eastwest
8 闂備胶绮〃澶愶綖婢跺⿵鑰块柡鍥ュ灩閻ょ偓銇勯弬鍨挃鐎规洘鍔欓弻锝夊箳閺囩喓銆愬銈嗘崄濞咃綁寮鈧畷姗€顢樿閻鏌f惔锝嗘毄妞ゃ垹锕﹂幑銏狀潨閳ь剙鐣烽敐澶嬫櫜闁割偅绻勯妶鈺呮⒑閸涘﹦绠戠紒鈧担鐑橆偨婵炴垯鍨圭紒鈺呮煥閻曞倹瀚� eastwest
9 濠电偞鍨堕幑浣割浖閵娧冨灊闁割偆鍠撻埢鏇㈡煕椤愮姴鍔氬ù婊勭箓閳藉寮捄銊ヮ暫濡炪倧闄勭€笛呯矉瀹ュ浼犻柛鏇ㄥ墲閸氼偅淇婇妶鍥㈤柛濠囶棑濡叉劕鈽夐姀鐘茬彉闂佽法鍣﹂幏锟� 闂備礁鎲¢〃鍡椺缚濞嗘垶顐介柕蹇f線閻掑﹪鏌熸潏鎯ь洭鐎规洩鎷� eastwest
10 [濠电偞鍨堕幖鈺呭储閻撳篃鐟拔旀担渚锤闂佸憡绻傜€氥劍绂嶉敐鍥╃=闁割偁鍨归弸宥囩磼濡炵厧鐏茬€规洩绻濆畷鍫曞Ω閿旂晫鏆氶梻浣烘嚀閹碱偊鎮ч幇鐗堝剭闁靛濡囬埢鏃€銇勯幘璺轰粶缂佷胶瀵� 闂備礁鎲¢〃鍡楊熆濡皷鍋撻惂鍛婂 eastwest
历史上的今天:回复热帖
2016: 传蔡英文承诺让美军使用空军基地
2016: 纪念航天日,长光卫星公布实时监控飞行
2015: 若第3次世界大战爆发,核武器将带来怎样
2015: 中国开放银行卡清算市场,银联卡垄断时代
2014: 国防部居然说了那16个字
2014: 丢掉幻想,准备斗争; 放下包袱,开动机
2013: 推背图43像没有完成,就达不成44像的盛
2013: 是什么样的信念使他这样无私?!这样落
2012: 黄岩岛事实上由菲律宾控制,中国现在是
2012: 中国军方暴露核战力令世界哗然:终于亮