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贸易战之三:显摆之过
送交者:  2018年04月08日09:47:01 于 [世界时事论坛] 发送悄悄话

汪 翔

川普说,中国经济已经成为世界第二大经济体,早已经不再是发展中国家,而且,中国人长期的,肆无忌惮的盗窃美国的知识智慧产权,是可忍孰不可忍,是到了时候,必须调整贸易政策,让中国人适应新的变化,和惩罚他们难改的恶习。川普说错了吗?在川普之后,美国的媒体多数只是就事论事,也没有铺天盖地的关于爱国,国家地位的每日大量头条。毕竟,美国人很看重头条的经济价值,除非川普政府每天花巨资,买下大量的头条新闻位置的席位。可是,代表纳税人的川普没有这个权利,花不起这个钱,也不觉得有这个必要。


中国方面,一以贯之的喜欢造势和显摆,再怎么样,也不可以输在势头上,这可是老祖宗一再说的,不能不听。一则是党中央到处炫耀自己的成功和伟大,同时还有来自北大教授之类的御用文人在扯着嗓子不断的高喊:中国已经超越美国成为世界最强大的国家,算算我们的GDP,用房价加总再计算一次我们所拥有的财富资产,是不是足够买下好几个美国。中国人民,你们有足够的资本值得自豪,你们实际远比你们感觉到的生活要富有的多。你们的孩子们,在美国穿着名牌,开着豪车,不就是生动的中国梦实现的体现吗?!


与此同时,中国政府也很配合的在世界各地大方的花钱做公关,既获得了显摆之后的短期自我心理满足,还做出了需要的政绩:让各种各样的大旗飘扬在世界各个落后的角落。


美国人看不惯中国人的显摆和土豪架势:如果你真的像你想显摆的那样富有,那么,你为什么不能承担作为第二大经济体应该承担的责任和义务?既然你说你行,我也认可你行(这也是美国人习惯了的思考逻辑!尊重每个人的自我表述。),那么,你是不是也得和咋们一样,尊重知识智慧产权,彻底消灭山寨和小偷小摸的恶习?既然你拥有中央集权,有那么多可以调用的国家资源,你也一定可以做到和世界发达国家一样,按照现代文明人的做法与人交往。为什么你不做?既然你自己不动或者动的实在是太慢,那我只好用强制了。这也是美国人典型的为人处世的行为规范,连对小孩子都是一样的逻辑,老幼无欺。


中国人则觉得,你们美国佬是真傻还是假傻,也太不会看事:我这样显摆,不就是长期的贫穷,被人瞧不起,想就此多有点自豪感吗?我伸展一下自己的自豪感感觉有什么错,你们美国人不也喜欢到处炫耀自己的自豪感?你还来真的,真的以为我是发达国家,真的觉得,我们国家的企业家们,不靠小偷小摸就能活下去,活得好?你真的看不出,多少人的富有,不是靠炒房获得的,有多少人真的靠经营企业获得的利润变的富有的?你真的以为,我们到处花钱摆谱,就真的是因为有钱?你们难道看不出,中国只是少数人富有,多数人在挣扎,看不到,我们已经将工作重心转向扶贫,向贫困开战,就像你们美国在六十年代所做的。你为什么就不能看看我们的进步,而是老盯着我们的不足?


就是这类看问题的角度不同,导致了今天的对垒:作为集权的政府,中国是不可以输在面子上的,美国人难道就不能给咋们点面子吗?于是乎,贸易战才刚刚开始,中国政府就每日头条的一次次显摆:世界人民都站在自己一边,美国国内很多人害怕商战的持续,等等诸如此类的每天类似的重复,也不觉得累,反正,中国的愤青一定比美国的多。下一步,估计还会有人建议,在纽约的时代广场,在美国所有的重要媒体,花大价钱买广告,来唤醒美国人民的革命意识,让美国选民做出正确的选择。


让人大跌眼镜的是:贸易战真的打起来,只有双输,可是,美国民调却显示,对川普的支持率反倒上升了不少。也就是说,普通民众的多数,还是支持总统的选择,虽然用指数指标投票的华尔街明显的表示不喜欢。虽然这里的高支持率的多数,都是文化水准不高,收入也不高的“低端人口”。可是,就是这样的低端人口,在美国拥有和高端人口同等的投票权,并且占有多数!这个事实,是不是该让中国政府好好的想想?


一场回合下来,中国政府学到了什么吗?会变的聪明一些吗?第一步,是不是该开除那些不靠谱的不学无术,却自以为是,口是心非的北大教授们?中国的最高学府还残留着这样的“精英”,伟大的祖国,您真的现代了吗?

 

 "Not unreasonable" for U.S. to push for fair trade with China

Adam Shell, USA TODAY, April 5, 2018

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon says it is “not unreasonable” for the U.S. to push for fairer trade terms with China, lauds the Trump administration for reforming the tax code and warns that markets may be underestimating the risk of a quicker pace of interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.

Dimon, the most influential CEO in banking and one of the most closely followed U.S. executives, offered his candid views on markets, trade tensions and government policy in his annual letter to shareholders released today.

Weighing in on the recent trade fight between China and the U.S., Dimon said the U.S. has “entered a time of uncertainty over global trade.” But he stressed that the “proper resolution of serious trade issues is good for the U.S. and for the rest of the world.”

President Trump's complaints about China, Dimon argues, are “legitimate,” noting that China is now the world’s second-largest economy and home to 20% of Fortune 500 companies, yet it “still considers itself a ‘developing nation’ that should not be subject to the same trade rules as the U.S. and other ‘developed’ countries.

Still, while Dimon says it's “not unreasonable” for the U.S. to push for more equal trade terms with China and believes both countries want to resolve their issues, he says there “is always a chance that miscalculations on the part of the various actors could lead to negative outcomes. This obviously creates higher risk and more uncertainty until resolved.”

Other key topics addressed by the well-respected banker include:

Financial Risks

One risk facing financial markets is if the economy gains enough speed to cause inflation and wages to rise more than anticipated, as that could cause the nation’s central bank to hike interest rates more quickly and aggressively than market’s currently believe.

“We have to deal with the possibility that at one point, the Federal Reserve and other central banks may have to take more drastic action than they currently anticipate — reacting to the markets, not guiding the markets,” Dimon wrote. “While in the past, interest rates have been lower and for longer than people expected, they may go higher and faster than people expect.”

A faster rate hike scenario could catch investors off-guard, he warns, and cause markets to "get more volatile."

Trump Economic Policies

Dimon says the new tax cut law that lowered taxes on businesses and individuals and Trump’s push to pare back regulations that were hurting companies’ growth are what was needed to unleash the potential of the economy.

“Our previous tax code,” he wrote, “was increasingly uncompetitive, overly complex, and loaded with special interest provisions that created winners and losers. The good news is that the recent changes in the U.S. tax system have many of the key ingredients to fuel economic expansion.”

Dimon added: “I am pleased that we did the right thing — not the easy thing.”

Regulation

The bank chief also said too often people confuse “more” regulation with “good” regulation, and what’s really needed is “smart” regulation. He says over regulation causes too much red tape and too much time and effort for businesses to comply with rules. He cited an example of it taking 10 years to get a permit to build a bridge, as the type of regulation that is holding back the economy.

“The current administration is taking steps to reduce unnecessary regulation by insisting that congressional rules around cost-benefit analysis be properly applied,” Dimon said. “It is also actively trying to put regulators in the right roles with the proper authority to use commonsense principles to make appropriate changes.”

 

What a trade fight would mean for Trump country

by David M. Drucker,  April 05, 2018 

 

President Trump’s hardball tactics to extract trade concessions from China could crush communities that fuel his political support, with Republicans in Congress paying the price in November.

A Brookings Institution analysis revealed that a U.S.-China trade war would impact agriculture and manufacturing and could disproportionately cost working class jobs in counties Trump carried in the 2016 election. Of the 2,783 counties affected, the president won 2,279; compared to just 449 that went for Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Nearly 1.1 million jobs in Trump country are tied to trade with China, according to the Brookings study. Voters there, supportive of the president’s agenda and long eager for the U.S. to combat Beijing’s unfair trade practices, might give the administration latitude to negotiate better terms.

But if the confrontation escalates and the economy suffers, congressional Republicans could shoulder the blame. Already facing a challenging re-election environment, they count a growing economy among their few advantages. They have minimal time to weather any storm and, unlike Trump, can’t rely on the loyalty of the GOP base.

“This could have a huge, negative impact in the midterms — and beyond — if the trade tit for tat continues,” Dave Carney, a veteran Republican strategist based in New Hampshire, said. Although, he added: “If the president gets concessions and jobs continue to grow and most importantly voters give him credit for that victory, then things will improve for his party.”

The Brookings Institution, a centrist think tank in Washington, examined industries and jobs that would be affected by a trade war with China based on the threats being lobbed back and forth since Trump began moving in March to crack down on Beijing. The Washington Post’s Greg Sargent first reported the initial data, which was later expanded and shared with the Washington Examiner.

Nothing concrete has actually happened, yet. Wall Street, and top executives at corporations who stand to lose business, are operating under the assumption that a deal will be reached before the saber-rattling evolves into an extended showdown.

On Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average opened down more than 500 points after China responded to threats from the Trump administration to hike tariffs on $50 billion in Chinese imports with a similar proposal to target more than 100 American products, among them a range of automobiles and SUVs. By the time the market closed, it was up 231 points.

“We encourage both governments to work together to resolve issues between these two important economies,” the Ford Motor Company said in a statement.

The agriculture industry, the economic backbone of many rural communities in the heartland, is less sanguine and isn’t waiting for negotiations between Washington and Beijing to falter to sound the alarm. In a press release, the American Soybean Association said “Chinese Retaliation is No Longer a ‘What If’ for Soybean Farmers.”

Soybean farmers export 60 percent of their crop, about $14 billion worth annually, to China. ASA Vice President Davie Stephens, a soybean farmer in Clinton, Ky., said he awoke Wednesday morning to a 30-40 cent per bushel drop in the price of soybeans, which appeared related to the increased specter of a trade war.

“Farmers are worried,” Stephens said in a telephone conversation. “My local community would feel the impact.”

Trump at times has been bellicose in his rhetoric, vowing that he would do whatever is necessary to force China to treat U.S. imports fairly. “When you’re already $500 Billion DOWN, you can’t lose,” he tweeted. But the administration in general sought to calm nerves, with top officials insisting that Trump is intent on avoiding a major spat with Beijing.

“You know, there are carrots and sticks in life, but he is ultimately a free trader. He's said that to me, he's said it publicly. So he wants to solve this with the least amount of pain,” Larry Kudlow, the president’s chief economic adviser and an ardent free trader, told reporters.

Republicans worried about the midterm elections don’t sound reassured. Hoping to run on a $1.3 trillion tax overhaul that accelerated economic growth in the first quarter of the year and delivered massive tax cuts, Republicans have seen their economic message usurped by Trump’s proposed tariffs.

Worse, Republicans fear that an unintended trade war might erase the economic gains they’re depending on to buttress the party against political headwinds that threaten to wipe out their majorities in the House and Senate. As Brookings discovered, more than 2.1 million jobs could be adversely affected by a confrontation with China, including almost 1 million in the 449 Clinton counties.

That’s because China’s potential retaliatory targets include white-collar industries such as pharmaceuticals and aerospace. House Republicans are defending 23 districts won by Clinton 17 months ago, and trade war aftershocks that rumble through Clinton counties could add to GOP woes in the affected red seats.

“If I were a Democrat, what I would be running up Trump’s ass is how these shenanigans are DESTROYING values in 401ks and college savings plans,” a GOP strategist said. “Most people don’t know a cashew farmer or whiskey distiller but do worry about their own retirement account and paying for college.”

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