川普說，中國經濟已經成為世界第二大經濟體，早已經不再是發展中國家，而且，中國人長期的，肆無忌憚的盜竊美國的知識智慧產權，是可忍孰不可忍，是到了時候，必須調整貿易政策，讓中國人適應新的變化，和懲罰他們難改的惡習。川普說錯了嗎？在川普之後，美國的媒體多數只是就事論事，也沒有鋪天蓋地的關於愛國，國家地位的每日大量頭條。畢竟，美國人很看重頭條的經濟價值，除非川普政府每天花巨資，買下大量的頭條新聞位置的席位。可是，代表納稅人的川普沒有這個權利，花不起這個錢，也不覺得有這個必要。

中國方面，一以貫之的喜歡造勢和顯擺，再怎麼樣，也不可以輸在勢頭上，這可是老祖宗一再說的，不能不聽。一則是黨中央到處炫耀自己的成功和偉大，同時還有來自北大教授之類的御用文人在扯着嗓子不斷的高喊：中國已經超越美國成為世界最強大的國家，算算我們的GDP，用房價加總再計算一次我們所擁有的財富資產，是不是足夠買下好幾個美國。中國人民，你們有足夠的資本值得自豪，你們實際遠比你們感覺到的生活要富有的多。你們的孩子們，在美國穿着名牌，開着豪車，不就是生動的中國夢實現的體現嗎？！

與此同時，中國政府也很配合的在世界各地大方的花錢做公關，既獲得了顯擺之後的短期自我心理滿足，還做出了需要的政績：讓各種各樣的大旗飄揚在世界各個落後的角落。

美國人看不慣中國人的顯擺和土豪架勢：如果你真的像你想顯擺的那樣富有，那麼，你為什麼不能承擔作為第二大經濟體應該承擔的責任和義務？既然你說你行，我也認可你行（這也是美國人習慣了的思考邏輯！尊重每個人的自我表述。），那麼，你是不是也得和咋們一樣，尊重知識智慧產權，徹底消滅山寨和小偷小摸的惡習？既然你擁有中央集權，有那麼多可以調用的國家資源，你也一定可以做到和世界發達國家一樣，按照現代文明人的做法與人交往。為什麼你不做？既然你自己不動或者動的實在是太慢，那我只好用強制了。這也是美國人典型的為人處世的行為規範，連對小孩子都是一樣的邏輯，老幼無欺。

中國人則覺得，你們美國佬是真傻還是假傻，也太不會看事：我這樣顯擺，不就是長期的貧窮，被人瞧不起，想就此多有點自豪感嗎？我伸展一下自己的自豪感感覺有什麼錯，你們美國人不也喜歡到處炫耀自己的自豪感？你還來真的，真的以為我是發達國家，真的覺得，我們國家的企業家們，不靠小偷小摸就能活下去，活得好？你真的看不出，多少人的富有，不是靠炒房獲得的，有多少人真的靠經營企業獲得的利潤變的富有的？你真的以為，我們到處花錢擺譜，就真的是因為有錢？你們難道看不出，中國只是少數人富有，多數人在掙扎，看不到，我們已經將工作重心轉向扶貧，向貧困開戰，就像你們美國在六十年代所做的。你為什麼就不能看看我們的進步，而是老盯着我們的不足？

就是這類看問題的角度不同，導致了今天的對壘：作為集權的政府，中國是不可以輸在面子上的，美國人難道就不能給咋們點面子嗎？於是乎，貿易戰才剛剛開始，中國政府就每日頭條的一次次顯擺：世界人民都站在自己一邊，美國國內很多人害怕商戰的持續，等等諸如此類的每天類似的重複，也不覺得累，反正，中國的憤青一定比美國的多。下一步，估計還會有人建議，在紐約的時代廣場，在美國所有的重要媒體，花大價錢買廣告，來喚醒美國人民的革命意識，讓美國選民做出正確的選擇。

讓人大跌眼鏡的是：貿易戰真的打起來，只有雙輸，可是，美國民調卻顯示，對川普的支持率反倒上升了不少。也就是說，普通民眾的多數，還是支持總統的選擇，雖然用指數指標投票的華爾街明顯的表示不喜歡。雖然這裡的高支持率的多數，都是文化水準不高，收入也不高的“低端人口”。可是，就是這樣的低端人口，在美國擁有和高端人口同等的投票權，並且占有多數！這個事實，是不是該讓中國政府好好的想想？

一場回合下來，中國政府學到了什麼嗎？會變的聰明一些嗎？第一步，是不是該開除那些不靠譜的不學無術，卻自以為是，口是心非的北大教授們？中國的最高學府還殘留着這樣的“精英”，偉大的祖國，您真的現代了嗎？

 "Not unreasonable" for U.S. to push for fair trade with China

Adam Shell, USA TODAY, April 5, 2018

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon says it is “not unreasonable” for the U.S. to push for fairer trade terms with China, lauds the Trump administration for reforming the tax code and warns that markets may be underestimating the risk of a quicker pace of interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.

Dimon, the most influential CEO in banking and one of the most closely followed U.S. executives, offered his candid views on markets, trade tensions and government policy in his annual letter to shareholders released today.

Weighing in on the recent trade fight between China and the U.S., Dimon said the U.S. has “entered a time of uncertainty over global trade.” But he stressed that the “proper resolution of serious trade issues is good for the U.S. and for the rest of the world.”

President Trump's complaints about China, Dimon argues, are “legitimate,” noting that China is now the world’s second-largest economy and home to 20% of Fortune 500 companies, yet it “still considers itself a ‘developing nation’ that should not be subject to the same trade rules as the U.S. and other ‘developed’ countries.

Still, while Dimon says it's “not unreasonable” for the U.S. to push for more equal trade terms with China and believes both countries want to resolve their issues, he says there “is always a chance that miscalculations on the part of the various actors could lead to negative outcomes. This obviously creates higher risk and more uncertainty until resolved.”

Other key topics addressed by the well-respected banker include:

Financial Risks

One risk facing financial markets is if the economy gains enough speed to cause inflation and wages to rise more than anticipated, as that could cause the nation’s central bank to hike interest rates more quickly and aggressively than market’s currently believe.

“We have to deal with the possibility that at one point, the Federal Reserve and other central banks may have to take more drastic action than they currently anticipate — reacting to the markets, not guiding the markets,” Dimon wrote. “While in the past, interest rates have been lower and for longer than people expected, they may go higher and faster than people expect.”

A faster rate hike scenario could catch investors off-guard, he warns, and cause markets to "get more volatile."

Trump Economic Policies

Dimon says the new tax cut law that lowered taxes on businesses and individuals and Trump’s push to pare back regulations that were hurting companies’ growth are what was needed to unleash the potential of the economy.

“Our previous tax code,” he wrote, “was increasingly uncompetitive, overly complex, and loaded with special interest provisions that created winners and losers. The good news is that the recent changes in the U.S. tax system have many of the key ingredients to fuel economic expansion.”

Dimon added: “I am pleased that we did the right thing — not the easy thing.”

Regulation

The bank chief also said too often people confuse “more” regulation with “good” regulation, and what’s really needed is “smart” regulation. He says over regulation causes too much red tape and too much time and effort for businesses to comply with rules. He cited an example of it taking 10 years to get a permit to build a bridge, as the type of regulation that is holding back the economy.

“The current administration is taking steps to reduce unnecessary regulation by insisting that congressional rules around cost-benefit analysis be properly applied,” Dimon said. “It is also actively trying to put regulators in the right roles with the proper authority to use commonsense principles to make appropriate changes.”

What a trade fight would mean for Trump country

by David M. Drucker,  April 05, 2018 

President Trump’s hardball tactics to extract trade concessions from China could crush communities that fuel his political support, with Republicans in Congress paying the price in November.

A Brookings Institution analysis revealed that a U.S.-China trade war would impact agriculture and manufacturing and could disproportionately cost working class jobs in counties Trump carried in the 2016 election. Of the 2,783 counties affected, the president won 2,279; compared to just 449 that went for Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Nearly 1.1 million jobs in Trump country are tied to trade with China, according to the Brookings study. Voters there, supportive of the president’s agenda and long eager for the U.S. to combat Beijing’s unfair trade practices, might give the administration latitude to negotiate better terms.

But if the confrontation escalates and the economy suffers, congressional Republicans could shoulder the blame. Already facing a challenging re-election environment, they count a growing economy among their few advantages. They have minimal time to weather any storm and, unlike Trump, can’t rely on the loyalty of the GOP base.

“This could have a huge, negative impact in the midterms — and beyond — if the trade tit for tat continues,” Dave Carney, a veteran Republican strategist based in New Hampshire, said. Although, he added: “If the president gets concessions and jobs continue to grow and most importantly voters give him credit for that victory, then things will improve for his party.”

The Brookings Institution, a centrist think tank in Washington, examined industries and jobs that would be affected by a trade war with China based on the threats being lobbed back and forth since Trump began moving in March to crack down on Beijing. The Washington Post’s Greg Sargent first reported the initial data, which was later expanded and shared with the Washington Examiner.

Nothing concrete has actually happened, yet. Wall Street, and top executives at corporations who stand to lose business, are operating under the assumption that a deal will be reached before the saber-rattling evolves into an extended showdown.

On Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average opened down more than 500 points after China responded to threats from the Trump administration to hike tariffs on $50 billion in Chinese imports with a similar proposal to target more than 100 American products, among them a range of automobiles and SUVs. By the time the market closed, it was up 231 points.

“We encourage both governments to work together to resolve issues between these two important economies,” the Ford Motor Company said in a statement.

The agriculture industry, the economic backbone of many rural communities in the heartland, is less sanguine and isn’t waiting for negotiations between Washington and Beijing to falter to sound the alarm. In a press release, the American Soybean Association said “Chinese Retaliation is No Longer a ‘What If’ for Soybean Farmers.”

Soybean farmers export 60 percent of their crop, about $14 billion worth annually, to China. ASA Vice President Davie Stephens, a soybean farmer in Clinton, Ky., said he awoke Wednesday morning to a 30-40 cent per bushel drop in the price of soybeans, which appeared related to the increased specter of a trade war.

“Farmers are worried,” Stephens said in a telephone conversation. “My local community would feel the impact.”

Trump at times has been bellicose in his rhetoric, vowing that he would do whatever is necessary to force China to treat U.S. imports fairly. “When you’re already $500 Billion DOWN, you can’t lose,” he tweeted. But the administration in general sought to calm nerves, with top officials insisting that Trump is intent on avoiding a major spat with Beijing.

“You know, there are carrots and sticks in life, but he is ultimately a free trader. He's said that to me, he's said it publicly. So he wants to solve this with the least amount of pain,” Larry Kudlow, the president’s chief economic adviser and an ardent free trader, told reporters.

Republicans worried about the midterm elections don’t sound reassured. Hoping to run on a $1.3 trillion tax overhaul that accelerated economic growth in the first quarter of the year and delivered massive tax cuts, Republicans have seen their economic message usurped by Trump’s proposed tariffs.

Worse, Republicans fear that an unintended trade war might erase the economic gains they’re depending on to buttress the party against political headwinds that threaten to wipe out their majorities in the House and Senate. As Brookings discovered, more than 2.1 million jobs could be adversely affected by a confrontation with China, including almost 1 million in the 449 Clinton counties.

That’s because China’s potential retaliatory targets include white-collar industries such as pharmaceuticals and aerospace. House Republicans are defending 23 districts won by Clinton 17 months ago, and trade war aftershocks that rumble through Clinton counties could add to GOP woes in the affected red seats.

“If I were a Democrat, what I would be running up Trump’s ass is how these shenanigans are DESTROYING values in 401ks and college savings plans,” a GOP strategist said. “Most people don’t know a cashew farmer or whiskey distiller but do worry about their own retirement account and paying for college.”