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中美贸易战之一:面对事实
送交者:  2018年04月05日05:53:25 于 [世界时事论坛] 发送悄悄话

汪 翔

总统最近日子过的清闲,想找点乐子,于是想到了贸易战,而且对准的是世界上最强大的对手中国。贸易战才开始拉开序幕,大家都在猜测结果会是什么样子的。现在都是猜测,谁都不知道到底会发生什么。但是,有些方面慢慢的会获得肯定的结论,我们作为看客,一步步的来解读。 

总统是商人出身,还是富二代,娇生惯养是自然,这样的人容易过度自信,还喜欢耍脾气。我们的总统还有个好赌的喜好。赌嘛,胜算大小还在于对手的强弱,不可能是完全的随机算率。更重要的是,我们这位从来没有经历过缺钱过日子的总统,也不可能理解劳苦大众赚钱、省钱、小心翼翼花钱的辛苦。大战还处于口水阶段,很多人已经眼巴巴的看着自己变的贫穷不少。后面的一旦真正动手,物价的高涨,失业率的高升,总统先生,还能不能保住宝座呢? 

只是估计,大家可以借机来解读我们的总统,我们的人民,还有我们自己。在这里,我先下三点结论,大家再基于这个基点来观察。如果我的猜测对了,总统先生恐怕会失去多于获得,甚至可能是偷鸡不成蚀把米。前提是,习近平敢不敢来硬的:如果是我,就选择强硬,最终逼得美国总统没有退路。那时候,他的总统宝座能不能保住呢? 

我们的总统先生,估计是在赌:中国领导者不可能也不敢强硬!这时候,读读《三国志》可能有点帮助。谁柔弱,谁就是输家!世界也在看着习近平。 

我觉得,美国打不起这场战争!美国民众不可能容忍这场战争。美国在等中国人的软弱。面子和里子,优先选择哪一个:这一次一定有好戏看,中国、美国都是。 

反正,下一次总统选举,我绝对不会支持他连任!我的三问三答: 

1.       美国有没有能力和中国开战?答案是否定!美国已经失去很多基本的制造业,有太多的日常用品依赖中国制造。美国人离不开中国,离开美国的中国人,依然会过的不错。

2.       美国为什么要开打一个不可能承担的贸易战?答案:虚张声势,谋求对手让步!

3.       中国到底有多需要美国?答案是:技术上和市场上,美国已经没有昔日那么重要。中国自己有足够大的市场自我良性循环。技术上,美国独占的部分越来越少。

这样的一场战争,总统先生,你又有多少选择?胜算在哪里?请不要最终让自己成为笑柄。

 

下面是部分参考内容:

Companies with the most on the line

Starting with the S&P 500 SPX, +1.26% financial researcher FactSet put together a special set of data to show which U.S. companies have the highest level of reported sales to China. A big problem with the data is that companies take different approaches to breaking down sales by geography. As we have seen, Amazon lumps all non-U.S. sales together. Then again, maybe if its business in China were to reach a certain size, it would want to provide more granular data.

Among the S&P 500, FactSet identified 62 U.S. companies that reported sales in the following relevant geographic areas:

·         China

·         Greater China

·         China and Taiwan

·         China, including Hong Kong

·         Asia-Pacific, Japan, China

So we are limited to companies that break out the China sales data and don’t have perfectly matching categories for “China.” But the size of the country’s economy make any figures in the above categories very important to investors.

Here are two lists. The first is the 20 U.S. companies among the S&P 500 with the highest level of sales, in U.S. dollars, in China during the most recently reported full fiscal year, totaling $158.4 billion:

Company

Ticker

‘China’ sales ($mil)

Total revenue - most recent reported fiscal year ($mil)

Share of sales in ‘China’

Apple Inc.

AAPL, -2.02%

$44,764

$228,572

19.6%

Intel Corp.

INTC, -3.48%

$14,796

$62,761

23.6%

Qualcomm Inc.

QCOM, +1.80%

$14,579

$22,291

65.4%

Boeing Co.

BA, -5.39%

$11,911

$93,392

12.8%

Micron Technology   Inc.

MU, -3.10%

$10,388

$20,322

51.1%

Broadcom Ltd.

AVGO, +4.00%

$9,466

$17,636

53.7%

Cisco Systems Inc.

CSCO, -2.49%

$7,650

$48,005

15.9%

Texas Instruments   Inc.

TXN, +1.52%

$6,600

$14,961

44.1%

Procter & Gamble   Co.

PG, +1.37%

$5,205

$65,058

8.0%

Starbucks Corp.

SBUX, +3.13%

$4,512

$22,384

20.2%

Western Digital   Corp.

WDC, -2.42%

$4,271

$19,093

22.4%

Nike Inc. Class B

NKE, +4.02%

$4,237

$34,254

12.4%

3M Co.

MMM, -2.19%

$3,255

$31,657

10.3%

Skyworks Solutions   Inc.

SWKS, -2.18%

$3,018

$3,651

82.7%

Applied Materials   Inc.

AMAT, -1.82%

$2,746

$14,537

18.9%

TE Connectivity Ltd.

TEL, +1.43%

$2,414

$13,113

18.4%

Corning Inc

GLW, +1.22%

$2,230

$10,115

22.0%

Abbott Laboratories

ABT, +1.36%

$2,146

$27,390

7.8%

Cummins Inc.

CMI, +0.86%

$2,137

$20,428

10.5%

Amphenol Corp. Class   A

APH, +0.89%

$2,067

$7,011

29.5%

Source: FactSet

As you can see, in a potential trade war with China there would be nowhere to hide even if you were invested in a broad index fund. Apple Inc. AAPL, -2.02%  alone has a market value of nearly $845 billion, or 3.8% of the total value of the S&P 500.

Here’s a partially overlapping list of the 20 U.S. companies in the S&P 500 with the highest share of sales in China:

Company

Ticker

‘China’ sales ($mil)

Total revenue - most recent reported fiscal year ($mil)

Share of sales to ‘China’

Skyworks Solutions Inc.

SWKS, -2.18%

$3,018

$3,651

82.7%

Qualcomm Inc.

QCOM, +1.80%

$14,579

$22,291

65.4%

Qorvo Inc.

QRVO, +1.72%

$1,880

$3,033

62.0%

Broadcom Ltd.

AVGO, +4.00%

$9,466

$17,636

53.7%

Micron Technology   Inc.

MU, -3.10%

$10,388

$20,322

51.1%

Texas Instruments   Inc.

TXN, +1.52%

$6,600

$14,961

44.1%

IPG Photonics Corp.

IPGP, +3.04%

$621

$1,409

44.1%

Advanced Micro   Devices Inc.

AMD, -4.50%

$1,747

$5,329

32.8%

Microchip Technology   Inc.

MCHP, -2.67%

$1,090

$3,408

32.0%

Amphenol Corp. Class   A

APH, +0.89%

$2,067

$7,011

29.5%

Xilinx Inc.

XLNX, +0.96%

$597

$2,349

25.4%

Intel Corp.

INTC, -3.48%

$14,796

$62,761

23.6%

Western Digital   Corp.

WDC, -2.42%

$4,271

$19,093

22.4%

Corning Inc

GLW, +1.22%

$2,230

$10,115

22.0%

Starbucks Corp.

SBUX, +3.13%

$4,512

$22,384

20.2%

Agilent Technologies   Inc.

A, +1.54%

$900

$4,472

20.1%

Avery Dennison Corp.

AVY, +0.66%

$1,300

$6,614

19.7%

Apple Inc.

AAPL, -2.02%

$44,764

$228,572

19.6%

Nvidia Corp.

NVDA, -4.26%

$1,896

$9,714

19.5%

Applied Materials   Inc.

AMAT, -1.82%

$2,746

$14,537

18.9%

Source: FactSet

There are many semiconductor manufacturers on this second list, owing to the 

 

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