| 成飞新机并非“六代机”，但有特殊使命 zt |
| 送交者: 2025年01月02日07:39:04 于 [世界军事论坛] 发送悄悄话 |
|
|
皇家空军学会分析，成飞新机并非“六代机”，但有特殊使命英国皇家航空学会（the Royal Aeronautical Society）对于成飞新机型的初步分析，核心观点如下： ①并非六代机，而是隐身超巡中型轰炸机； ②带有特殊使命和用途（和歼20类似，但比歼20更强大），远距离猎杀对方空中、地面高价值目标； ③很快（2030年前）可以投入使用，全尺寸原型机状态，而不是技术验证机。 以下是分析正文，（译者注：文章中把成飞新飞机称为Boxer“拳击手”，请注意） Boxing clever? China's next-gen tailless combat aircraft analysedOn Boxing Day 26 December 2024, pictures and video emerged of a new Chinese stealth aircraft, featuring a unique configuration of three engines, diamond planform and no tail. Veteran aviation journalist and stealth expert BILL SWEETMAN assesses what we know so far. 战斗技巧更聪明？中国下一代无尾战斗机分析 2024年12月26日圣诞节当天，一架中国新型隐形飞机的照片和视频曝光，该飞机采用独特的三台发动机配置、菱形平面形状和无尾翼。资深航空记者兼隐形专家比尔·斯威特曼 (BILL SWEETMAN)评估了我们目前所知道的情况。
Images of the flight were also remarkable as the mystery aircraft was accompanied by a twin-seat CAC J-20S. (via Chinese internet) Fourteen years ago, Western aerospace people emerged from the festive fog and piles of wrapping paper to find an extra present from Yang Wei, the head of the design team at Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group: the revelation of China’s first stealth aircraft, the J-20. Yesterday, he did it again, with a stealthy, supercruising medium bomber – that may be an indirect counter to the B-21. 此次飞行的图像也十分引人注目，因为这架神秘飞机旁边还有一架双座型歼-20S战机护航。（来自中国互联网） 十四年前，西方航空航天人从节日的迷雾和成堆的包装纸中走出来，发现了成都飞机工业集团设计组组长杨伟送来的一份额外礼物：中国第一款隐形飞机歼-20的亮相。 昨天，他再次出击，派出隐身超巡中型轰炸机，这可能是对B-21的间接对抗。 Double surprise Boxing Day 2024 saw images of CAC (left) and Shenyang (right) new stealth aircraft surface - both been flown openly in daylight. (via Chinese internet) It’s been known for some time that China’s industry has been working on a larger stealth aircraft, sometimes referred to as JH-XX or H-XX. Rumbles around China-aerospace watchers indicated that there might be a post-Christmas event coming, but we’ve all been disappointed before. 双重惊喜 2024 年圣诞节当天，成飞（左）和沈阳飞机工业（右）的新型隐形飞机亮相，两架飞机均在白天公开飞行。（来自中国互联网） 一段时间以来，人们都知道中国工业界一直在研发一种更大的隐形飞机，有时被称为 JH-XX 或 H-XX。中国航天观察家们的轰动表明，圣诞节后可能会有一场盛事，但我们之前都失望过。 Not this time. First, we saw the maiden flight of Chengdu’s new aircraft, chased by a twin-seat J-20S to provide scale; clearly large, crewed, supersonic, and stealthy, with a blended double-delta shape, no vertical stabilizer and (astonishingly) three engines, two with conventional underwing caret inlets and the third breathing through a dorsal intake. And then came the debut of another stealth design, an apparently unmanned, smaller demonstrator from Chengdu sister company Shenyang. Some pictures were dated from a week ago, so this seems to have been an internal release rather than a necessarily public first flight from Chengdu. For the moment I am going to focus on Chengdu’s newcomer. As of the evening of December 26, it has no name (as I write, one source is using J-36), but given the date, its likely mission, and Chinese history, I shall assign it the reporting name Boxer. 这次不是。首先，我们看到了成都新飞机的首飞，后面跟着一架双座歼-20S，以提供对比；它显然体型巨大、载人、超音速、隐身，采用混合双三角翼型，没有垂直稳定器，而且（令人惊讶的是）有三个发动机，两个采用传统的翼下圆形进气口，第三个采用背部进气口。 随后，另一款隐形飞机也首次亮相，这架飞机是成都的姊妹公司沈阳的一款小型无人驾驶验证机。一些照片拍摄于一周前，因此这似乎是成都的一次内部发布，而不是成都首次公开试飞。 目前，我将重点介绍成都的新飞机。截至12月26日晚上，它还没有名字（在我撰写本文时，一个消息来源使用的是J-36），但考虑到日期、可能的任务以及中国的历史，我将给它起一个代号叫 Boxer（拳击手）。 Let’s start with what is not happening. To call it a sixth-generation aircraft would be misleading, because, aside from the abuse that the 'generations' tag has been subjected to, you might think that Boxer is a fighter or some kind of analogue to the US Next Generation Air Dominance programme, whereas it’s something quite unique, and in no way a replacement for anything in service with the People’s Liberation Army – Air Force today. Nor is it likely that (as some have speculated) there is any kind of competition between Chengdu and Shenyang. The Shenyang vehicle looks much smaller, and Boxer itself looks very analogous to the first J-20: not quite a pre-production aircraft in every detail, but a full-size prototype rather than a minimal technology demonstrator, to be followed by a low-rate production batch. This process worked well on the J-20 and on the aircraft based on Shenyang’s FC-31. 让我们先从没有发生的事情开始。称其为第六代飞机会产生误导，因为除了“代”标签遭受的滥用之外，你可能会认为 Boxer 是一种战斗机或美国下一代空中优势计划的某种类似物，而实际上它是一种非常独特的东西，绝不会取代目前解放军空军服役的任何飞机。 成都和沈阳之间也不太可能存在任何竞争（正如一些人猜测的那样）。沈阳的飞机看起来小得多，而 Boxer 本身看起来与第一架歼-20 非常相似：不是每个细节都像预生产飞机，而是全尺寸原型机，而不是最低限度的技术演示机，随后将进行低速率生产。这一流程在歼-20 和基于沈阳 FC-31 的飞机上效果很好。 Unwrapping a mystery
The aircraft features an unusual configuration of upper and side intakes. Note dual main landing gear.(via Chinese internet) With that in mind we can unpack some of Boxer’s features. 揭开谜团 该飞机的上部和侧面进气口结构非常独特。请注意双主起落架。（来自中国互联网） 考虑到这一点，我们可以解析Boxer的一些功能。 China’s armed forces and their equipment are designed to establish regional military dominance. From a Chinese perspective, the only important challenge to that dominance comes from U.S.-led air forces: the USAF and the Navy’s aircraft carriers, with allied support from Japan, Korea, Australia and others. (I hate to break it to the Marine Corps and the US Army but nobody in Beijing stays awake at night worrying about them.) Boxer’s distinguishing attributes are stealth, speed, range, and weapons load. The J-20 does well at the first two, and does better at the third than other fighters, but it was designed to go after air targets – principally high-value air assets like airborne early warning and control aircraft, and intelligence and electronic warfare platforms – and its weapon bays are tailored accordingly. 中国的武装力量及其装备旨在建立地区军事优势。从中国的角度来看，对这一优势的唯一重大挑战来自美国领导的空军：美国空军和海军航空母舰，以及日本、韩国、澳大利亚等国的盟军支持。（我不想告诉海军陆战队和美国陆军，但北京没有人会因为担心他们而彻夜难眠。） 拳击手战机的显著特点是隐身性、速度、航程和武器装载量。歼-20在前两个方面表现不错，第三个方面也比其他战机更好，但它的设计目标是攻击空中目标——主要是高价值空中资产，如机载预警机和控制飞机以及情报和电子战平台——因此它的武器舱也是量身定制的。 Boxer is a chonky boi, eeerm, a large aircraft. It’s longer than the J-20 – about 75ft – but much broader. The blended double-delta wing spans 63ft, with more than 2,000 square ft of gross area. (Caution – these numbers are preliminary.) As I noted in my review of the Global Combat Aircraft Program’s Tempest design, large deltas accommodate massive quantities of fuel, leaving space in the body for weapons. Other indicators of Boxer’s true size include its tandem-wheel main landing gear units, something seldom found today on any military aircraft under 100,000lb take-off weight, and a fully bomber-sized weapon bay, 25ft long and more than 7ft wide. Plus two side bays, sized for defensive AAMs or anti-radiation missiles. It would not be at all surprising if a fully loaded Boxer weighed 120,000lb or even a little more – at that weight, the wing loading is a modest 60 pounds/sq ft, similar to the Saab Draken, which Boxer somewhat resembles in planform and the location of its side inlets. A clean fuel fraction above 0.4 is attainable. Sweep angles and inlet shapes point to a max Mach number around 1.8 (see F-22). Supercruise capability will depend on non-afterburning thrust, and we will return to that point. 拳击手是一架笨重的飞机，呃，是一架大型飞机。它比歼-20长约75英尺（22.9米），但宽度要宽得多。混合双三角翼展长63英尺（19.2米），总面积超过2,000平方英尺（185.8㎡）。（注意-这些数字是初步数据。）正如我在对全球战斗机计划的暴风设计（译者注：英国的第五代战斗机计划）的评论中所指出的那样，大型三角翼可容纳大量燃料，从而在机身中留出空间放置武器。 拳击手真实尺寸的其他指标，包括其双轮主起落架，这种装置在当今起飞重量低于100,000磅（45吨）的军用飞机上很少见，还有一个轰炸机大小的武器舱，长25英尺（7.6米），宽超过7英尺（2.1米）。另外还有两个侧舱，可容纳防御性空对空导弹或反辐射导弹。 如果满载的Boxer重量达到120,000磅（54吨）甚至更多，那一点也不奇怪——在这个重量下，机翼载荷为60磅/平方英尺（293公斤/㎡），与 Saab Draken相似，Boxer的平面形状和侧面进气口的位置与后者有些相似。可实现 0.4 以上的清洁燃料分数。后掠角和进气口形状表明，最大马赫数约为1.8（参见F-22）。超音速巡航能力将取决于非加力推力，我们将回到这一点。 The stealth shaping is similar to the J-20, with canted plane surfaces. It has six planform-edge alignments. Extreme low observables it is not – unless China has made a breakthrough in materials, which can’t be ruled out – but this is also a stand-off, supersonic aircraft, and ELO is less necessary to survivability. Where Boxer diverges from previous supersonic designs is in the absence of vertical tail surfaces, bringing all-aspect stealth into the high-speed realm. It has five control segments on the trailing edge of each wing, of which the two outer elements (at least) are split to act as brake/rudders. They seem to have been wide open for the duration of the first flight, a position that gives them maximum authority. However, as on the B-2 and B-21, those surfaces must stay closed in stealth mode and directional control must be provided by other means. Northrop Grumman used differential thrust on the B-2, and likely on the B-21 as well. It is possible that Boxer uses a similar technique, and this may have a connection to its unique propulsion layout. 隐身外形与歼-20类似，具有倾斜平面。它有六个平面边缘对齐。它不是超低可观测性——除非中国在材料方面取得突破，但这也不能排除——但这也是一种防区外超音速飞机，而且 ELO 对生存能力来说不那么必要。 Boxer与之前的超音速设计不同之处在于，没有垂直尾翼，将全方位隐身带入了高速领域。它在每个机翼的后缘有五个控制段，其中两个外侧元件（至少）被分开以用作刹车/方向舵。它们似乎在第一次飞行期间一直处于完全打开的状态，这种状态赋予它们最大的控制权。然而，与B-2和B-21 一样，这些表面在隐身模式下必须保持关闭，并且必须通过其他方式提供方向控制。 诺斯罗普·格鲁曼在 B-2 上使用了差动推力，很可能在 B-21 上也使用了。Boxer可能也使用了类似的技术，这可能与其独特的推进布局有关。 Three-engined beast
This image shows the aircraft clearly has three engines. (via Chinese internet) Why three engines? There has to be some very important benefit to justify the complexity of the Boxer configuration, with a completely different inlet design for the center engine, which also sees different aerodynamic conditions. The simplest explanation is that there is no extant Chinese engine large enough for a twin, but would that justify such a drastic impact to the shape? 三引擎野兽 这张图片清楚地显示该飞机有三个发动机。（来自中国互联网） 为什么是三台发动机？水平对置发动机的复杂配置肯定有其重要优势，中央发动机的进气口设计完全不同，空气动力学条件也不同。最简单的解释是，中国目前没有足够大的发动机可以容纳双缸发动机，但这能证明对外形进行如此大幅度的改变是合理的吗？ The one image seen so far of Boxer on the ground shows three large-diameter exhausts opening just ahead of the trailing edge, and other shots show what appear to be movable trailing-edge segments behind the exhausts – giving some ability to vector thrust. But Yang Wei’s team has almost certainly bought some nasty thermal issues if those engines have full afterburning: the trench exhausts on the YF-23 were a nightmare. (I was a consultant on the resulting lawsuit between Northop and Allison, which had supplied its Lamilloy thermal protection system.) 目前所见的Boxer在地面上的一张照片显示，在后缘前方有三个大直径的排气口，而其他照片则显示，排气口后面有可移动的后缘部分，这赋予了它一定的矢量推力能力。 但是，如果这些发动机完全开启加力燃烧，杨伟的团队几乎肯定会遇到一些严重的热问题：YF-23上的沟槽排气管简直就是一场噩梦。（我是诺斯罗普公司和艾利森公司之间由此引发的诉讼案的顾问，艾利森公司为其提供了 Lamilloy 热保护系统。） But how do you match thrust supply and demand over a wide subsonic and supersonic flight regime? It’s possible that the Boxer designers have done this by using the center engine mainly for take-off, initial climb and supercruise – leaving two symmetrically disposed engines to provide differential thrust and vectoring for stealthy flight control. If the designers wanted to be extra double sneaky (and be hated by logisticians) there’s no physical reason why the center engine needs to be the same as the outers. It could have a lower bypass ratio and overall pressure ratio (like a big Eurojet EJ200) and hence better performance in supercruise – providing Boxer with the benefits of variable-cycle propulsion without the same complexity and risk. Three engines in the 22,000 lbs. thrust class, with some use of afterburning boost for takeoff and transonic acceleration, should be adequate. 但是，如何在亚音速和超音速飞行状态下平衡推力的供给和需求呢？Boxer的设计者可能已经做到了这一点，他们主要使用中央发动机进行起飞、初始爬升和超音速巡航，而使用两个对称布置的发动机提供差动推力和矢量控制，以实现隐身飞行控制。 如果设计师想要更加隐蔽（并遭到后勤人员的憎恨），那么没有任何物理原因要求中央发动机与外侧发动机相同。它可以具有较低的涵道比和总压力比（如大型Eurojet EJ200），从而在超音速巡航中具有更好的性能——为Boxer提供可变循环推进的好处，而无需相同的复杂性和风险。三台推力为22,000磅（10吨）的发动机，在起飞和跨音速加速时使用一些加力增压，应该足够了。 Supercruising striker
The aircraft has a huge-bomber-sized weapon bay. (via Chinese internet) Operationally, what does this add up to? As noted above, counter-air is the main mission. Boxer can carry air-to-air missiles, but the big main weapons bay means larger weapons for larger targets – aircraft carriers and air bases. Alternatively, Boxer could launch swarms of loitering munitions against air bases, including more distant ones hosting long-range B-21s. 超巡前锋 该飞机拥有一个巨型轰炸机大小的武器舱。（来自中国互联网） 从作战角度来看，这意味着什么？如上所述，防空是主要任务。拳击手可以携带空对空导弹，但大型主武器舱意味着可以携带更大的武器来打击更大的目标——航空母舰和空军基地。或者，拳击手可以向空军基地发射大量巡飞弹，包括更远的拥有远程 B-21 的空军基地。 That brings up an advantage of supercruise and a limitation of the B-21. A supercruiser, operating at long range, can achieve much higher sortie rates than a subsonic missile carrier like the H-6. Conversely, if a relatively slow subsonic bomber is forced to use more distant bases because of the risk of air attacks, its sortie rate will be much lower and it will need more tanker support; and if the adversary uses large supercruisers with air-to-air weapons, the tankers themselves will be at risk even if they are more than 1,000 miles from adversary bases. 这就带来了超音速巡航的优势和B-21的局限性。超音速巡航飞机在远距离飞行时，其出动率要比轰-6等亚音速导弹运载机高得多。相反，如果速度相对较慢的亚音速轰炸机因为空袭风险而被迫使用更远的基地，其出动率将低得多，并且需要更多的加油机支援；如果对手使用配备空对空武器的大型超音速巡航飞机，即使加油机距离对手基地超过1,000英里（1600千米），它们本身也会面临危险。 Timing? The first J-20 appeared in December 2010, the pre-production aircraft in around 2014. So this beast could be approaching production by the end of the decade. We may have a problem on our hands. 时间？首架歼-20于2010年12月问世，预生产型飞机于2014年左右问世。因此，这款猛兽可能在2030年前后投入生产。 我们可能很快遇到大麻烦。 英国皇家航空学会（the Royal Aeronautical Society）官网：https://www.aerosociety.com/news/boxing-clever-chinas-next-gen-tailless-combat-aircraft-analysed/ |
|
|
|
|
 |
||
 |
| 实用资讯 | |
|
|
|
|
| 一周点击热帖 | 更多>> |
|
|
|
| 一周回复热帖 |
|
|
| 历史上的今天：回复热帖 |
| 2024: | ZT 高梁：总要有人说出真相--关于“饿死 | |
| 2024: | 中国或面临三场战争，躺平赢不了 | |
| 2023: | 华为起死回生？内部讲话曝现况，2023绝 | |
| 2023: | 元旦游客数据暴涨，旅游业回暖了吗？媒 | |
| 2022: | 2021 国际货币基金 全球各国国内生产总 | |
| 2022: | 如果开战，你愿不愿意上战场？民调结果 | |
| 2021: | 潮水：罗冠聪 难道你不是白人或黑人？ | |
| 2021: | 潮水：中共专制仅对内思想非民生，对外 | |
| 2020: | “中国速度”走向何方？ | |
| 2020: | 棋迷论民主之七 中国民主无痛分娩的充分 | |
|
|