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洲际导弹三连发这是实战威吓,看来白头鹰把兔子逼急了
送交者:  2012年08月23日11:23:48 于 [世界军事论坛] 发送悄悄话
三连发这是实战威吓,看来白头鹰把兔子逼急了~

穷兵黩武

Bill Gertz说,8月20日,PLA再次试射洲际导弹。已一月三射洲际导弹。

Chinese Missile Tests Continue

China conducts third long-range missile test in 4 weeks
 
 
China missile / AP

China missile / AP

     

BY: Bill Gertz
August 23, 2012 5:00 am

China’s military continued its string of strategic missile flight tests on Monday by firing off a third intercontinental ballistic missile in four weeks, according to U.S. officials.

U.S. military sensors detected the latest flight test, which took place in the early morning hours at China’s Wuzhai Missile and Space Test Center, near the town of Wuzhai in northwestern Shanxi province, about 267 miles southwest of Beijing.

The missile was tracked to impact range in the western Chinese desert and was identified as a CSS-4 Mod 2 silo-based ICBM.

It followed the first flight test of a new road-mobile DF-41 multiple-warhead missile on July 24 and the test firing of a new submarine-launched ballistic missile, the JL-2, which is also assessed to be capable of carrying multiple warheads.

It could not be learned if the CSS-4, also called the DF-5A, was assessed to have tested or was configured for multiple warheads or dummy warheads used to fool missile defenses.

U.S. intelligence analysts have said that China is expected to field multiple warhead missiles in the near future. One reason for upgrading from single warhead missiles is China’s concern that U.S. missile defenses in the future could render the single-warhead arsenal impotent.

For example, a recently translated Chinese military report stated that U.S. plans to develop multiple kill vehicle anti-missile interceptors “poses a new threat to defense penetration by ballistic missiles.” The report called for increasing missile warhead penetration by using stealth warhead designs and adding warheads or dummy warheads that can confuse missile defense targeting sensors.

The Pentagon did not confirm the three flight tests publicly due to restrictions on discussing intelligence matters, a military spokesman said.

But a senior defense official said the tests aren’t “ringing alarm bells. And it’s not at all certain that … the Chinese have exactly perfected all of their missile technologies. That may explain some of the recent testing.”

It is not known if the three recent flight tests were successful, but officials said initial indications from sensors were that the missiles did not fail in flight.

A third U.S. official said the tests highlight China’s growing strategic missile arsenal, forces that remain shrouded in secrecy and appear to be moving in the direction of developing a “first strike” attack capability.

China officially has claimed its nuclear forces are mainly “second strike” weapons that would be used to respond to a nuclear attack on China.

China’s communist rulers have said China would not be the first to use nuclear weapons in a conflict.

However, that policy has been questioned by the Pentagon due to statements from Chinese military officials who have discussed the use of nuclear weapons against the United States that were not a response to a U.S. nuclear attack, such as long-range, precision, conventionally armed cruise missile strikes.

By contrast, defense officials have said unusual Air Force delays in conducting a U.S. strategic missile test is a sign that policy officials in the Obama administration may be putting off the missile tests for political, rather than technical, reasons.

A U.S. Minuteman III ICBM was set for earlier this year in California. But the test was delayed three times, ostensibly for technical and range safety concerns.

A defense official said political interference and concerns about Chinese and Russian reactions to the Minuteman test were behind the delays, not just the technical problems.

Spokesmen at the Air Force Global Strike Command, which is in charge of the Minuteman III test, disputed that political factors were behind the test delay and said technical and range safety issues were the reason. The missile test is now set for Nov. 14.

Russia, too, is building a new long-range missile and has not hesitated to carry out tests of both submarine-launched missiles, which have had problems, and a missile that Russian officials have said is designed to penetrate U.S. missile defenses.

The Chinese missile flight tests coincide with the visit to the Pentagon this week by Chinese Lt. Gen. Cai Yingting, deputy chief of the general staff of the Communist Party-controlled People’s Liberation Army, and four other generals. It could not be learned if Cai will be questioned on the missile tests during meetings with senior Army and defense leaders.

Analysts said the most recent ICBM test was significant.

“It is likely that a CSS-4 Mod 2 or DF-5 Mod 2 would be the same as the DF-5B, which was said to me in 2010 to be the multiple warhead version of the DF-5,” said Richard Fisher, a Chinese military affairs specialist.

“So it is possible that in just one month’s time the PLA has tested two new multiple warhead land-based ICBMs and one submarine launched SLBM that could eventually carry multiple warheads,” said Fisher, with the International Assessment and Strategy Center.

“At a minimum, the PLA wants to tell us that it will be pointing more nuclear warheads our way and faster.”

Hans M. Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the private Federation of American Scientists, said the CSS-4 test indicates that the Chinese plan to keep their older, liquid-fueled missiles in the arsenal instead of replacing them with solid-fuel missiles that are more rapidly fired.

Kristensen also said the CSS-4 is a likely candidate for multiple warheads.

“The U.S. intelligence community has stated for more than a decade that China for years has had the capability to develop and deploy multiple warheads, if it decided to do so, and that the CSS-4 would be the most likely carrier,” he said.

“One of the factors that has the potential to trigger such a decision would be a U.S. missile defense system that, combined with advanced conventional strike capabilities, could weaken Chinese leaders confidence in the reliability of their retaliatory nuclear force,” Kristensen said.

China’s current deployment of mobile, more survivable DF-31 and DF-31A ICBMs “probably makes it less likely that China would see a need to deploy multiple warheads on their missiles, although deployment of penetration aids or decoys might be more likely,” he said.

This entry was posted in National Security and tagged China, Missile, PLA, test, Wuzhai. Bookmark the permalink.

人 民 日 报: 美 国 也 要 为 自 个 儿 多 留 后 路

2012-08-23 人民日报海外版

日美“夺岛”军演是瞎壮胆(望海楼)

  东亚一有风吹草动,一个魅影总是不请自来。因钓鱼岛争端,中日正陷入僵局之时,美国来了,带着武器来的。

  8月21日,美国海军陆战队与日本自卫队,开始了为期37天的岛屿作战演习。日本《产经新闻》引述日本防卫省官员话说,“演习就是假设中国军队入侵钓鱼岛,美日如何联合夺回。”

  美日联手向中国“示威”,其目的不言自明。

  或许美国会说,我来是为了平衡局势,以确保东亚和平,保护盟友利益。但是,“火上浇油”浇不出东亚和平。真正的和平,靠的是互信、互惠,靠的是规则、道义。俩邻居正拌嘴,你给其中一人递把枪,并告诉他如何使用,这不是劝和的姿态。

  当然,美国的这个盟友最近比较“焦虑”,似乎有必要安慰一下。但为盟友利益考虑,就得考虑全面和长远,也要为自个儿多留后路。日本没法把美国国土搬到身边,它的对岸始终是中国。而这个中国还是美国要建设新型合作伙伴关系的国家,更是美日两国的重要经济伙伴。盟友来了,壮壮胆,放几句狠话,简单得很。但这解决不了根本问题,也不是建设性的态度。

  邻国发生纠纷、摩擦,古今难免。即便夫妻、兄弟、父子也多少会有分歧。一个正义、有道德的旁观者,应是劝解促和,避免矛盾升级,而不是玩弄牵制平衡权术。

  为玩弄霸权,个别国家不惜牺牲地区和平,极尽挑拨之能事。或煽风点火制造紧张,或直接干预挑起战争,以图削弱冲突双方实力,让冲突一方或双方依附于己,瓦解那些挑战自己强权地位的意志和实力,从而获取对某一地区的优势统治地位。这种景象,在西亚、北非有,在东亚也有。

  处理与邻国关系,中国历来“以邻为伴,与邻为善”,主张“安邻、富邻、睦邻”,把发展同邻国关系放在重要地位。与邻国处好了,自己发展和安全才有坚实基础。对所有国家,道理一样。

  国家间存在矛盾很正常,关键是如何看待和处理。中日之间的问题和矛盾,远没到绝交或战争的程度。一时解决不了,理智的做法是先放一放,坐下来谈。双方都应审慎,力避让事态扩大和复杂的言行,先解决能够解决的问题。

  我们奉劝一些人,不要幻想拉虎皮当大旗。企图拉盟友壮威获得对华优势,在分歧和矛盾中捞好处,这种心态小心被人利用,最终反而吃亏。

  我们也奉劝另一些人,时代不同了,该换一换脑筋了。指望通过“火上浇油”来“火中取栗”,既不光彩,也不道德,有损国家形象。作为大国,推动世界和地区和平,推动人类进步,消除贫困落后,为实现共同安全多努力,才能真正赢得世界尊重。

  当然,中国从来不怕事。如果有人希望通过武力示强,让中国知难而退,那就大错特错了。新中国成立初期,一穷二白,都没被飞机大炮或原子弹吓倒,何况今天的中国国力已远非昔日可比。

  中国人民珍惜和平,但我们更有打退任何挑衅的坚定决心,谁也别想通过武力威胁或耍花招阴谋,从中国人民手中抢走一寸土地。

  (作者王新俊为军事科学院国防政策研究中心研究员)

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    弹头数和箭体数可以不一致。  /无内容 - 小人物 08/23/12 (133)
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