| LDK 3/8/2011 presentation (1) |
| 送交者: eachus 2011月03月11日20:29:50 于 [世界股票论坛] 发送悄悄话 |
| 回 答: 千里马卖死驴子的价钱，你不亏，因为你不是卖家 由 eachus 于 2011-03-11 20:24:27 |
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Jack Lai, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Secretary
Good morning. Thank you, Jeff for the introduction. My name is Jack Lai and I'm the Chief Financial Officer for LDK Solar. And allow me for about 20 minutes to go through the presentation and save about 10 minutes for Q&As. So we are a five-year old company. Even though we are just five-years old, not on top of that anymore. We are very strong and we can run. Based on the current financial guidance for the company, in Q4 2010, we are looking at revenues of $800 million, may be close to $900 million the revenue, based on our guidance. So today, we are number one in the wafer space. And we are truly vertically integrated. So the company started with wafer production five years ago. And right now we are sitting at 3-gigawatt. And we have long-term contracts. We are very, very busy and we are shipping every wafer we can make. Then we expanded into the upper stream operations, started a $2 billion investment for the polysilicon production and now it's three years. So the $2 billion is almost all spent and we are on the way to produce about 9,000 to 10,000 metric tons of polysilicon at today's price. That price is close to $600 million to $700 million revenue contribution for the year 2011. We also get into the downstream sale and the module operations about a year ago in the first quarter of 2010. We acquire a [inaudible] operation from a peer company in China; subsequently we started our own in-house sale operation; start with 180 megawatts of sale production. And now we are adding additional capacity for the sales. And that's started in September of 2010. And this year in January, we announced that we just acquire a second company in a project business based in Roseville, California, which is close by Sacremento. A company with about 45 people, focus on system development, the EPC and also the utility scale business. Two years ago, we acquired a small company in Italy named SGT, also focused on project developments in the Italian market, also doing project business in Czech Republic, France and Germany. So based on industry experience of five years that we start with a zero revenue, in the past five years we have a good experience to win this – this 40% gross per year for the last five years. So for LDK as a company, we are leading manufacturing. We are not only making wafers, we are not only vertically integrated, but we ship multiple products. Today, we ship polysilicon to wafer manufacturers. We ship wafers to the sale and the module manufacturers. We ship modules to project developers and also to distributors. And lastly, we are also a project developer, which we participated in commercial, industrial and also utility scale project. We are very, very young, today in a project business only a few months, however, we have confidence that we can grow to a certain level of contribution. And before too long, you will see more announcements from LDK as far as Page 2 of 6 we develop in the project business. So from a [inaudible] equation, actually we demonstrated our leadership in terms of manufacturing, imposing silicon materials, as well as the wafer manufacturing. And our cost reduction has been very significant at least 15% per year accomplishments through the last five years. Couple of years ago, we were enjoying the wafer price at $2.28, today the wafer price is actually still at about $0.85 to $0.90. With this more than 50% price reduction and a cost reduction, we still sustain the company's gross margin at about 25% to 28% range. And at least the multiple products, we have a very diversified customer base, which is situated actually from all over the world. And of course, we service multiples manufacturing and multiple product distribution strategies, we can grow the company, with a very significant future to be. So for LDK story, we want to continue to strengthen our vertically integration strategy, which to secure the upper stream material, abundant of supply of silicon. Today silicon is again in shortage. In Q3 of 2010, we announced a silicon price, ASP plus about $62. I think in Q4, we heard about $70. In Q1 today, we are experiencing more than $80. So by investing $2 billion in the polysilicon manufacturing, which allow LDK to save our cost, at end of this year will be $30 to $32. And I have been "this cost point" for the last three years. And after three years of construction of this poly brand, now we can say we are sitting at about $39 and we should see $32 by the end of this year. So the hardworking three years and some of my colleagues, they really work day and night for this project. And now the $2 billion allow us to say, we will have $30 cost point, which compared to the long-term price of $60 to $65 per kilogram. We can see for the polysilicon business will contribute about 50% gross margin to our product mix, which compared to the downstream module business, I assume that gross margin is very, very attractive. And also we continue to focus on our engineering efforts to a low-cost strategy of which we have from a process technology in silicon to save energy to have the [inaudible] scale to share the cost lower. Polysilicon cost on the wafers, for the non-silicon processing cost for wafer, today we are into the [inaudible] making, as well as the module making. And as far as the productivity, the yield improvement and also the material to be safe and to be replaced by some of the low-cost of material. While we still maintain high-quality and that continue to be our efforts for long-term manufacturing expertise. We also continue to ramping up our polysilicon. And today at 11,000 and we're going to go into 18,000 metric tons by the end of this year. We are working on the [inaudible] 5,000 trend very, very diligently, which we expect about in three months, we're going to bring another 5,000 pins into the plate, which will make LDK by the end of the year go to 18,000. And I believe that's going to rank up to number five in the worldwide rankings. We also fully establish our own module brand, the branding is becoming more important, because now we have downstream products. So we are working more diligently in marketing and also working on our branding especially for European markets as well as the North American markets. So for silicon, today 11,000 going to 18,000 metric tons. Solar wafer capacity today sitting at 3 gigawatts, we're going to go past 3.6. And many of our investors ask, Jack, some other companies they're going to go for zillions of gigawatt, why you could just grow to 3 to 3.6? And the sister company started five years ago. We have a philosophy. When we said of our capacity, number one, to cope with the market growth, so we believe this year market growth grow 20% to 30%, so we put that guidance to grow from 3 to 3.6. That's our first principle. The second principle will be we built our capacity to support the demand from our customers. Hence, if you see 3.6, means that in LDK, in our sales departments, they have contract for our customers. I will give you the names later on. And those contracts, if we add them together, the backlog was such as that require above 3.6 gigawatt. So we build the company's capacity to meet growth, and this will maintain the market share in a long run. And secondly, we'll have sufficient capacity to support the demand from our customers. The sale operation is very, very young, and we started September, 180 megawatts. Today we are at full capacity of 180. We are in process of making additional 1 gigawatt in a different city called Province. And that project started end of |
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