4:22PM Mosaic misses by $0.12, misses on revs; co is again not providing financial guidance on potash sales volumes or MOP selling price (MOS) 45.00 -0.22 : Reports Q1 (Aug) earnings of $0.23 per share, $0.12 worse than the First Call consensus of $0.35; revenues fell 66.3% year/year to $1.46 bln vs the $1.54 bln consensus. Mosaic's Q1 results were impacted by significant declines in market selling prices for phosphate and potash sales volumes combined with lower potash selling prices, compared with the prior year quarter. Phosphate sales volumes in the first quarter were comparable to levels a year ago. The decline in potash sales volumes and selling prices continues to be related to cautious purchasing by customers due to volatile grain and oilseed prices and the lack of normal contracting activity compared with a year ago... Several important signs of a global economic recovery have emerged in recent months as an impetus to crop nutrient recovery, including gains in key Asian economies and improved outlooks in developed economies. Concurrently, grain and oilseed consumption is steadily increasing as the world's appetite continues to swell due to steady population growth and increases in income in developing countries, inevitably leading to increased investments in agriculture, including a balance of crop nutrients. Longer term, annual global real gross domestic product growth is estimated by a leading economic forecasting firm to trend upward from 2.5% in 2010 to 3.8% in 2012, and with it, more prosperity and the desire to improve diets. Inventories for North American phosphate producers declined again in August 2009 and are at the lowest levels since May 2006. Inventories for North American potash producers are working down from elevated levels earlier this calendar year. The distribution pipeline has been largely emptied, although buyers remain cautious about re-stocking. "Farmers around the world have reduced crop nutrient applications in their most recent growing season, drawing down the nutrient levels banked in their soils... We believe farmers will increase application rates in response to high 2010 new crop prices and the need to replenish the large amount of nutrients withdrawn by the record crop this year"...  MOS sees Q2 phosphate sales volume of 1.8-2.2 mln tonnes, above sales volume of 1.23 mln in the prior year's quarter; sees Q2 phosphate DAP prices of $265-305 per tonne, well below last year's price of $1,083 per tonne in the prior year's quarter. Also, MOS is not providing financial guidance on potash sales volumes or MOP selling price, for the second consecutive quarter, until market conditions normalize.  Capital spending for fiscal 2010 is expected to grow to a range of $1.0 billion to $1.2 billion. Mosaic is executing its multi-year potash expansion plan as well as investing substantial funds to further improve operating performance of its existing plants and mines. SG&A is estimated to range from $350-370 mln in fiscal 2010 and the effective income tax rate is estimated in the high 20% range for the year.