上周天然气可谓随风起舞，随风而逝。Well，我是个乐观主义者，看到的亮点有：西部的储量开始下降。天然气价格因为一个未成行的热带低压可以上升很多。

Summary

Natural Gas:

The NYMEX prompt-month contract increased $0.03 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) to $3.70/MMBtu last week. The 12-month NYMEX strip price was up $0.09/MMBtu to $5.14/MMBtu. Last week, the Henry Hub cash price decreased $0.02/MMBtu to $3.37/MMBtu. 

Storage:

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) storage inventory for the week ending July 17 rose 66 billion cubic feet (Bcf) to 2.952 trillion cubic feet (Tcf). The build was at the low end of expectations. The storage level is 458 Bcf above the five-year average and 568 Bcf more than the same period in 2008. The excess over the five-year average shrank by 21 Bcf last week.

Weather: 

This week, the mid-section of the U.S. should be cooler than normal and West Coast and New England should be warmer than normal. The southern third of the U.S. should have warmer-than-normal weather and most of the rest of the U.S. should have cooler-than-normal weather during the six- to 10-day and eight- to 14-day time frames. 

Imports:

Send-out volumes last week from liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals totaled about 1.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd), which was 0.4 Bcfd higher than a year ago. Canadian imports last week were 7.5 Bcfd, which was 0.7 Bcfd less than last year. 

During the middle of last week, the prompt-month futures price of natural gas at the Henry Hub was higher than the price of natural gas in the United Kingdom. Natural gas storage in Europe is building at a strong pace.

Exploration and production: 

The total U.S. oil and gas rig count increased by 23 last week to 943 rigs. The rig count has dropped 54 percent (1,088 rigs) since its peak in September. The number of rigs drilling for gas was up 10 after reaching a seven-year low last week. The number of rigs drilling for oil was up by 13 rigs. The Canadian rig count increased by 28 to 180 rigs.

Electricity:

Electricity generation for the week ending July 18 was 6.1 percent higher than the prior week and 6.1 percent lower than a year ago. Year-to-date electricity usage is 4.2 percent lower than last year.

Petroleum:

The NYMEX West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prompt-month contract settled at $68.05 per barrel (Bbl) on Friday, up $4.49/Bbl for the week after positive economic news last week. The spread between the prompt-month contract and the 12th-month contract widened during the week from $8.47/Bbl to $9.23/Bbl on Friday. Brent crude settled at $70.32/Bbl on Friday. U.S. retail gasoline prices fell 1 cent last week to $2.47 per gallon. 

For the week ending July 17, crude oil inventories decreased by 1.8 million barrels (MMBbls), distillate inventories increased by 1.2 MMBbls, and gasoline inventories increased by 0.8 MMBbls. The crude oil inventory decrease was smaller than expected and the build in distillate and gasoline inventories was smaller than expected. Storage levels were unchanged at 30.8 MMBbls last week. U.S. refinery utilization fell 2.1 percent to 85.8 percent.

Compared to last year, the EIA estimates that the four-week rolling average U.S. gasoline demand was up 0.7 percent, distillate fuel demand was down 11 percent and jet fuel demand was down 13.9 percent. Total products supplied to the U.S. market were down by 4.8 percent. 

U.S. motorists drove 0.1 percent more miles in May than a year ago. Year-over-year miles driven have increased for the last two months. 

Approximately 1.6 million barrels per day (MMBpd) of Nigerian crude oil production has been shut in due to ongoing violence in the Niger Delta, cutting its total production in half. Angola is now Africa’s largest oil producer. Nigerian police killed 65 radical Islamists in nothern Nigeria over the weekend. These militants, unrelated to the militants in the Niger Delta, want to impose Islamic law in the country.

Oil Movements estimates that OPEC crude oil exports will drop 380,000 barrels per day (Bpd) in the four weeks to Aug. 8 to 22.39 MMBpd. Compliance with OPEC production cuts is about 72 percent.

China’s crude oil consumption in June was 2.6 percent higher than a year ago. That was the third consecutive month with a year-over-year increase.

Economy: 

Existing home sales rose 3.6 percent from May to June which was the third consecutive monthly increase. Foreclosures and short sales were 31 percent of total sales. The inventory of homes, at the current pace of home sales, has droped to 9.4 months. The month-over-month median sales price in June was up 4.1 percent but year-over-year prices were down 15.4 percent. Construction of new homes has risen for three consecutive months.

The Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators has risen for three months in a row. Seven of the 10 indicators increased in June. The Confernce Board thinks that a slow economic recovery could begin by autumn.

The Federal Reserve said that it plans to keep interest rates low for some time to make sure the economy recovers. They think that the excess manufacturing capacity in the economy will prevent the occurrence of inflation. This week, the U.S. government will issue $200 billion in debt, the most in one week since 1985.

U.S. credit card defaults in June were 10.8 percent. The Federal Reserve indicated that commercial real estate defaults could increase sharply.