繁体中文  
 
世界商讯
 · 九阳全新免清洗型豆浆机 全美最低
 首页 |
 
版主:道友
 · 九阳全新免清洗型豆浆机 全美最低
 
页岩油"革命"的泡泡即将破灭.
送交者:  2013年03月07日17:16:16 于 [世界股票论坛] 发送悄悄话
spectacularly bust?

Those great folks at DeSmogBlog have highlighted how two reports were published yesterday, which stick a huge pin in the hype surrounding the shale gas bubble.

Rather than putting us on the road to energy security, the reports basically argue that the fracking boom could burst just as the US housing market imploded in the late noughties.

Both reports were published on the ShaleBubble.org website, which is a great new interactive website from the Post Carbon Institute, Energy Policy Forum, and Earthworks.

The aim of the website is to provide critical analysis — using industry and government data — to counter the false claims that domestic supplies of shale gas and shale oil (tight oil) will ensure energy security and significant long-term economic benefits to the US.

In the first report J. David Hughes from the Post Carbon Institute has written a painstakingly researched report, called “Drill Baby, Drill”, which looks at the prospects for various unconventional fuels to provide energy abundance for the United States in the 21st Century.

It will make uncomfortable reading for politicians and the pro-oil hawks. The report concludes that the U.S. cannot drill and frack its way to energy independence. “Despite the rhetoric, the United States is highly unlikely to become energy independent unless rates of energy consumption are radically reduced.”

Indeed the “much-heralded reduction of oil imports in the past few years has in fact been just as much a story of reduced consumption, primarily related to the Great Recession, as it has been a story of increased production.”

The report argues that “At best, shale gas, tight oil, tar sands, and other unconventional resources provide a temporary reprieve from having to deal with the real problems: fossil fuels are finite, and production of new fossil fuel resources tends to be increasingly expensive and environmentally damaging.”

Although shale gas production has grown explosively to account for nearly 40 percent of U.S. natural gas production; its production has been on a plateau since December 2011. A whopping 80 percent of shale gas production comes from just five plays, several of which are already in decline.

Shale gas is ridiculously expensive: some $42 billion per year is spent to drill more than 7,000 wells, just in order to maintain production.

Tight oil, meanwhile does not fare much better and is a bubble of “ten years duration”. Once again, tight oil plays “are characterized by high decline rates, and it is estimated that more than 6,000 wells (at a cost of $35 billion annually) are required to maintain production”.

So that’s nearly $80 billion just to stand still.

Hughes concludes that “the projections by pundits and some government agencies that these technologies can provide endless growth heralding a new era of ‘energy independence,’ in which the U.S. will become a substantial net exporter of energy, are entirely unwarranted based on the fundamentals.”

The second report is written by a former Wall Street financier, Deborah Rogers, who examines the role of the banks in the shale gas bubble.

She argues that “Wall Street promoted the shale gas drilling frenzy, which resulted in prices lower than the cost of production and thereby profited [enormously] from mergers & acquisitions and other transactional fees.”

Such has been the frenzy that U.S. shale gas and shale oil reserves have been overestimated by a minimum of 100% and by as much as a massive 400-500% by operators. The reality is that “Shale oil wells are following the same steep decline rates and poor recovery efficiency observed in shale gas wells.”

The reason that the price of natural gas has been driven down is largely due to severe overproduction in meeting financial analysts’ targets of production growth for share appreciation.

She concludes that “Unconventional oil and gas from shales has been claimed to be a game changer, revolutionary,“a gift and national treasure,” however “shale development is not about long-term economic promise for a region, nor is it about job creation or long term financial viability of shale wells”, its all about a quick financial win for the bankers.

“Leases were bundled and flipped on unproved shale fields in much the same way as mortgage-backed securities had been bundled and sold on questionable underlying mortgage assets prior to the economic downturn of 2007,” she warns.

Just as the banks went boom to bust, these reports are a stark warning about what could happen with the fracking boom.

Don’t say you weren’t warned.

0%(0)
0%(0)
  test  /无内容 - feiyang 03/08/13 (420)
  test - lazylazy555 03/08/13 (418)
  test  /无内容 - feiyang 03/08/13 (442)
  这个泡泡破的时候会发生爆炸。煤价飙升!  /无内容 - biomed 03/08/13 (450)
    那几年天然气在十多块时,煤是140,  /无内容 - biomed 03/08/13 (452)
标 题 (必选项):
内 容 (选填项):
实用资讯
北美最大最全的折扣机票网站
美国名厂保健品一级代理,花旗参,维他命,鱼油,卵磷脂,30天退货保证.买百免邮.


一周点击热帖 更多>>
一周回复热帖
历史上的今天:回复热帖
2012: n_m 老道: 你们的牛尾巴还正是长啊,看
2012: 私营就业数据再次证实劳动力市场出现乐
2011: 转风了,由熊变牛
2011: 决定油价涨跌的3月11号星期五沙特阿拉伯
2010: test
2010: 美国老太花180美元买股票 75年后值700万
2009: 最近2年WLI的长处、问题和短视。
 
Jobs. Contact us. Privacy Policy. Copyright (C) 1998-2021. CyberMedia. All Rights Reserved.