5 things that Gary Shilling sees as threats large enough to derail the recovery:

“First was housing.  Shilling was among those who correctly identified the housing bubble and predicted its collapse in 2006.  Today, excess inventories – between 2.0 and 2.5 million houses – may lead to a further price decline of 20%, Shilling said, which is the decline necessary to bring housing back to its long-term trend.  He cautioned that markets usually overshoot on the downside.

The oil market and the turmoil in the Middle East were Shilling’s next concern.  He said he wasn’t sure how severe the problem might become, but he was adamant that high oil prices would not trigger inflation.  “As long as you have high unemployment, there is virtually no risk that high oil prices would seep over into the wage structure,” he said.  “It isn’t inflation; it’s a tax – and it is a big tax on the consumer.”

Japan was Shilling’s third concern, and he called that country’s economy a “slow motion train wreck.”  Japan faces a serious problem down the road financing its huge government debt, he said, which it has done so far largely by selling bonds to its citizens.  That worked while Japan ran a trade surplus, but unfavorable demographics and a weak US consumer will eventually create a current account deficit, at which point the Japanese will have to borrow from foreign markets – at much higher interest rates than the 1.25% it pays now.  That could lead to a “death spiral,” he said, wherein additional debt would be necessary to fund interest payments.

Fourth on Shilling’s list was the Eurozone debt crisis.  Shilling said that he expects a restructuring to take place to resolve the problems facing Greece, Portugal, Ireland and perhaps Spain.  A recession in Europe would follow, which would impair US exports.  It will also create problems for the US banks, which collectively own 28% of the debt in the Eurozone.

A likely “hard landing” in China completed Shilling’s list of concerns.  China now faces 12% inflation, he said, which is very significant for the bulk of its population that earns modest incomes.  Slowing down China’s economy will be very difficult.  Its central bank has already raised reserve requirements eight times since January of last year and raised interest rates four times over that period.”

Gary Shillling提供了5件事情会威胁到经济复苏： 

首先是住房。Shilling正确地确定了房地产泡沫，并预测在2006年崩溃。今天，超额存货 在2.0和2.5万所房屋， 可能导致价格进一步下跌20％，Shilling说，这是必要的下降，将住房回到其长期趋势。他告诫说，通常在市场下跌时会出现过冲。 

石油市场和中东动乱。他说，他不知道有多严重，但他坚持认为，高油价不会引发通货膨胀。 “只要你有高失业率，几乎没有风险，高油价会渗入工资结构。 这不是通货膨胀，它是一个很大的消费税。” 

日本是第三个问题。”日本面临着一个向下的融资的巨额政府债务严重问题，他说。它目前还主要是通过出售债券给其公民。日本有贸易盈余，但不利的人口和疲弱的美国消费者将最终使其建立一个经常帐赤字，此时日本将不得不借助国外市场，支付更高的利率。这可能导致一场“死亡螺旋”。他说，额外的债务必需额外的资金支付利息。 

Shilling名单第四个是欧元区的债务危机。他预计要发生的重组，以解决面临的问题，希腊，葡萄牙，爱尔兰和西班牙都可能。在欧洲，经济衰退将跟进，这将损害美国的出口。这也将为美国的银行，其中拥有的28％在欧元区的债务。 

一个可能是中国的“硬着陆”。中国现在面临着12％的通胀率。他说，这是非常大，因为中国人口大部分是赚取微薄的收入。放缓的中国经济将是非常困难的。它的中央银行已经提高了八次存款准备金从去年一月及上调利率，是同一时期的四倍。