UNG在去年4月肯定是底了，此后的趋势是振荡上扬，老道的判断是UNG会在15-23之间振荡，中间值19块，低于19块就逐渐买入，高于19块逐渐抛掉。不过买天然气钻探公司有相当风险，因为在天然气价低于4块（相当于UNG $23)前，这些公司很难真正盈利.下面是美国能源部的预测：

ZT:Natural gas working inventories, which a record-high level in early November, ended 2012 at an estimated 3.5 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), slightly above the level at the same time the previous year. EIA expects the Henry Hub natural gas spot price, which averaged $4.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2011 and $2.75 per million MMBtu in 2012, will average $3.74 per MMBtu in 2013 and $3.90 per MMBtu in 2014.