美国知名历史学家艾伦·利希特曼（Allan Lichtman）教授，在过去40年10次总统大选中，曾九次正确预测总统胜选人，包括2016年川普胜选与2020年拜登胜选。https://blog.creaders.net/u/13701/202405/487834.html
每逢大选前两三个月，利教授便会根据他的13个准则【注】对大选赢家做出预测。8月下旬，利教授称，将在劳工节后宣布他的预测。
果不其然，今日利教授终于做出他的预测：在13个利氏判别准则中，8个对哈里斯有利，仅3个对川普有利。他的结论是，哈里斯将当选。
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/09/05/historian-allan-lichtman-2024-election-prediction/75082875007/
根据利氏理论，哈里斯要在6个准则遭到翻盘才会败选。现在对川普有利的只有三个准则，还缺三个。
阿川和粉丝们，情况不大妙，要倍加努力哟。
利教授这次的预测对吗？两个月后便见分晓。
【注】利教授用13个准则预测两党总统候选人的胜败，而从不在乎所谓的民调。利氏13准则如下：
The White House party gained House seats during the midterm elections
The sitting president is running for re-election
The White House party is avoiding a primary contest
There is a third-party challenger
The short-term economy is strong
The long-term economy growth has been as good as the last two terms
The White House party has made major changes to national policy
There is sustained social unrest during the term
The White House is untainted by scandal, the incumbent party is charismatic
The challenger is uncharismatic
The incumbent is charismatic
The White House party has major failure in foreign policy
The White House party has foreign policy success.
