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亲爱的中国政府民主党救不了你
送交者:  2018年11月08日12:30:02 于 [世界时事论坛] 发送悄悄话

亲爱的中国政府:民主党也救不了你


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House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi on Trump's China tariffs: “The United States must take 

strong, smart and strategic action against China’s brazenly unfair trade policies. The Trump 

administration must do much more to fight for American workers and products."  Sorry, Xi. 

Nancy won’t save you if her party wins back the House of Representatives on Tuesday. (Photo by 

Mark Wilson/Getty Images)  谷歌同志译文:

众议院少数党领袖南希佩洛西对特朗普的中国关税表示:“美国必须采取L硬,明智的战略

行动来对付中国肆Wu忌惮 Dan 的不公平贸易政策。 特朗普政府必须做更多的事情来为美国

工人和产品而战。“ 不好意思,习,如果她的政党周二赢回众议院,那厶南希不会去搭救你的。


Related image

                 作者: Kenneth Rapoza

If Beijing thinks that a House flip on Tuesday is good news for them in 

this trade war with Trump, they are in for a rude awakening. Sorry, 

China, the Democrats won’t save you.

Firsts off, the trade war—or trade friction, as the Chinese like to call it—

is mainly an executive decision. That means that all of these tariffs have 

been under the purview of the executive branch of government. That's 

Trump. But if he did need Congress to help him out with anything he 

could count on bipartisan support.

Senator minority leader Chuck Schumer is for tariffs. House Minority 

eader Nancy Pelosi is on board with Schumer. If the Democrats win the 

House on Tuesday, she may become the majority leader and will set the 

tone for the party.

Here is what Pelosi thinks about China tariffs: “The report of the USTR 

investigation on China’s intellectual property theft is a good first step, 

but far more is need to confront the full range of China’s bad behavior. 

Beijing’s regulatory barriers, localization requirements, labor abuses, 

anticompetitive ‘Made in China 2025’ policy and many other unfair trade 

practices require a full and comprehensive response. The tariffs 

announced today should be used as a leverage point to negotiate more 

fair and open trade for U.S. products in China.”

This from a woman whose district in the state of California has seen a 

marked increase in trade with China. She both knows the economic 

benefit of China and the impact China trade has had on blue-collar labor, 

as well as on the intellectual property often created in the Bay Area she 

represents. It’s true that governors and business representatives like 

doing business with China, but Washington is another animal with quite 

a different mindset.

Take a look at some of the centrist Democrats whoare likely to beat 

Republicans for a House seat tomorrow: New York 22nd district 

congressional candidate Anthony Brindisi agrees with Trump on trade. 

As a local government official in his New York upstate town, Brindisi 

came out against a state-funded purchase of Chinese-made beer 

fermentation tanks that could have been made in America. If he’s done 

that locally, why would he change his tune in Washington? He'll still be 

representing the same town.


In toss-up districts, Democrats like Ronald DiNicola of Pennsylvania's 

16th congressional district likes Trump “cracking down on the Chinese”; 

Dan McCready of North Carolina doesn’t like the China trade war, but 

says the U.S. definitely needs a better trade deal with China; Xochitl 

Torres Small of Nevada's 2nd congressional district says, “We need to 

counter the unfair trade practices from China. This should be done, so

 that the interests of entrepreneurs, farmers, blue-collar workers, and 

other stakeholders are all represented. ... I’ll fight for fair trade policies 

that help New Mexican farmers, ranchers, businesses and workers.”


In most agribusiness-dependent districts where Democrats stand a chance 

of beating their Republican challenger, candidates are all against tariffs. 

China has retaliated against U.S. tariffs by imposing extra duties on U.S. 

soybeans and other farm products. Candidates from Minnesota, Alaska, 

North Dakota, Kansas and Montana are not on board with Trump’s 

tariffs. But considering Democratic party leadership is in favor of tariffs, 

the farm districts will either get in line or be a minority vote in Congress 

should the issue ever come up in Congress in the first place. Many of 

these districts are Republican districts anyway, and farmers that I’ve 

spoken to over the last few months all said they would vote Republican, 

regardless of agribusiness tariffs.

There is a cross-party consensus now on China. It goes away if China 

changes some of the rules of its game. If Trump ever did put tariffs up 

for a vote to Congress, the Chinese leadership would be wise to know 

that the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act is still on the books. That would be 

worse than Trump, who can remove tariffs tomorrow if he wanted 

without requiring a vote.

To differentiate from Trump, the Democrats will just use buzzwords like 

“fair trade.” But the endgame will be the same, enforcing and exporting

democratic capitalist values on the Chinese government.


如果北京方面认为星期二的众议院翻转对于他们在与特朗普的这场贸易

中是个好消息,那厶他们正处于一种粗鲁的觉醒之中。对不起,中国,

民主党人不会去拯救你的。

首先,贸易战或贸易摩擦,正如中国人所说的那 - 主要是行政巡式C

这意味茤狾这些关税都属于政府行政部门的职权范围。那是特朗普。

但如果他确实需要国会韺U他解言笞韫L可以指望两党支持的事情。

参议员少数党领袖Chuck Schumer负责关税。众议院少数党领袖南希佩

洛西与舒默在船上。如果民主党在星期二赢得众议院,她可能会成为

多数党领袖,并将为党提供基调。

以下是佩洛西对中国关税的看法:“美国贸易代表办公室对中国知识

产权盗窃的调查报告是一个良好的第一步,但更需要面对中国的各种

不良行为。北京的监管壁垒,本地化要求,劳工滥用,反竞争“中国

制造2025”政策以及许多其他不公平贸易行为需要全面而全面的回应。

今天宣布的关税应该被用作谈判美国产品在中国更公平和开放贸易的

杠杆点。“

这是一位来自加利福尼亚州的女性与中国的贸易明显增加的女性。她

都知道中国的经济利益以及中国贸易对蓝领劳动力的影响,以及她所

代表的湾区经常创造的知识产权。州长和企业代表确实喜欢与中国做

生意,但华盛顿是另一种心态截然不同的动物。

看看一些中间派民主党人明天有可能击败共和党人获得众议院席位:

纽约第22区议会候选人安东尼布林迪西同意特朗普的交易。作为纽约

州北部城镇的地方政府官员,布林迪西出面反对国家出资购买本可以

在美国制造的中国制啤酒发酵罐。如果他是在当地完成的,他为什厶

要改变他在华盛顿的调子?他仍将代表同一个城镇。


在折腾地区,像宾夕法尼亚州第16届国会区的罗纳德·迪尼科拉这Yang

的民主党人喜欢特朗普“打击中国人”;北卡罗来纳州的Dan McCready

不喜欢中国的贸易战,但表示美国肯定需要与中国达成更好的贸易协议;

内华达州第二届国会区的Xochitl Torres Small说:“我们需要对抗

来自中国的不公平贸易行为。应该这庚窗A以便代表企业家,农民,

蓝领工人和其他利益相关者的利益。 ......我将争取公平贸易政策,

韺U新墨西哥农民,牧场主,企业和工人。“

在大多数依赖农业企业的地区,民主党有机会击败他们的共和党挑战者,

候选人都反对关税。中国通过对美国大豆和其他农产品征收额外关税来

打击美国关税。来自明尼苏达州,阿拉斯加州,北达科他州,堪萨斯州

和蒙大拿州的候选人没有加入特朗普的关税。但考虑到民主党领导层

支持关税,如果国会首先提出这个问题,那厶农场地区要厶在国会中

投票,要厶在国会进行少数投票。 论如何,这些地区中的许多地区

都是共和党地区,过去几个月我与之交谈过的农民都表示, 论农业

企业的关税如何,他们都会投票支持共和党。

现在就中国存在跨党派共识。如果中国改变其游戏规则,它就会消失。

如果特朗普确实对国会投票征收关税,那厶中国领导人明智地知道

斯莫特 - 霍利关税法案仍然存在。这将比特朗普更糟糕,特朗普明天

可以在不需要投票的情G下取消关税。

为了与特朗普区别开来,民主党人只会使用“公平贸易”这帚漪y行

语。但最终结局将与中国政府一届A执行和出口民主资本主暯痍观。


众议院的翻转不会改变华盛顿对中国的看法。

此外,只要Robert Lighthizer和Peter Navarro正在协调这一点,中国

就应该期待继续存在贸易摩擦。 Lighthizer是特朗普在贸易方面的

“超级天才”,并且知道如何融合对中国的新共识。纳瓦罗是“嗡嗡

声”,特朗普的攻击犬愿意扮演坏警察的角色。即使他们要下台,

特朗普的美国第一所学校也有其他人可以解这个问题。像高盛

(Goldman Sachs)的校友加里科恩(Gary Cohn)这帚漱关税自由

贸易商类型已经全部消失。

最后,贸易争端可以被视为华盛顿对华新外交政策的一部分。

随茪国在亚洲的崛起,曾经由日本经济主导的每天一美元的一部分,

一个没有军事的经济,美国通常的霸权和军国主憟~交政策已经找到

了新的目标。

对于华盛顿和北京来说,南海将成为重新设计亚洲联盟的新问题。

对于美国选民来说,中国更容易被理解为经济竞争对手。他们很容易

被妖魔化为工作杀手和知识产权窃贼。对于美国外交政策制定中的

长期思想家,中国特别威胁美国在太平洋和东南亚的军事霸权。北京

应该期待在这方面更加紧张,特别是来自共和党的右翼。民主党主席

可能会放弃这一点,但国家,国防,五角大楼和情报机腹中的永久

官僚机腹不会这庚窗C中国可以把它带到银行。


乔治华盛顿大学中国政策项目主任大卫·尚博在周五的“南华早报”

上写道:“在国内更加自由的方向上,中国的政策和行动没有实质性

的逆转,外部的方向更加克制,新的美国对中国的L硬态度可望

Wu限期地持续下去。“

特朗普政府的L硬政策得到了国会的支持。他们希望在 泛的问题上

反击中国。明天当选的新的第116届国会可能会对中国更加L硬。

习近平应该希望贸易战的所有成分都留在特朗普的房里。太多的

师肯定会破坏中国的汤。

A House flip won’t change Washington's opinion on China.

Anthony Brindisi, Democratic candidate for New York’s 22nd 

Congressional District came out against a Chinese manufacturer in 

2017. (Photo By Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)

Moreover, so long as Robert Lighthizer and Peter Navarro are 

coordinating this, China should expect continued trade frictions. 

Lighthizer is Trump’s “super genius” on trade and knows how to fuse 

the new consensus on China. Navarro is the “buzz saw,” Trump’s attack 

dog who is willing to play the role of bad cop. Even if they were to step 

down, there are others in Trump’s America First school that could pick 

up the slack. The anti-tariff free-trader types, like Goldman Sachs alumn 

Gary Cohn, are all gone.

Lastly, the trade dispute can be seen as only part of Washington’s new 

foreign policy on China.

As China rises to prominence in Asia, once a dollar-a-day part of the 

world dominated by the Japanese economy, an economy with no military, 

the usual American foreign policy of hegemony and militarism has found 

a new target.

The South China Sea will be a new wedge issue for Washington and 

Beijing to rework alliances in Asia.

To the American voter, China is more easily understood as an economic 

rival. They are easily demonized as job killers and intellectual property 

thieves. To the long-term thinkers in the American foreign policy 

establishment, China threatens U.S. military hegemony in the Pacific 

Ocean and South East Asia in particular. Beijing should expect more 

tension on this front, especially from the right flank of the Republican 

Party. A Democratic presidency might give up on this, but a permanent 

bureaucracy in the departments of State, Defense, the Pentagon and in 

the intelligence apparatus will not. China can take that to the bank.


Writing in the South China Morning Post on Friday, David Shambaugh, 

director of the China Policy Program at George Washington University 

said, “Absent a substantial reversal of Chinese policies and actions in a 

far more liberal direction domestically and more restrained direction 

externally, the new American hard line on China can be expected to 

endure indefinitely.”

The toughened policies of the Trump administration have congressional 

backing. They want to push back against China on a broad range of 

issues. The new 116th Congress that gets elected tomorrow could get 

even tougher on China. Xi Jinping should hope that all of the ingredients 

of a trade war stay in Trump's kitchen. Too many chefs will definitely 

spoil China’s soup.

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