By

Miguel Guevara

@miguelguevaraii

Miguel Guevara was born and raised in Cuernavaca, Mexico. He holds an MA in public policy from Harvard University.

On  January 26, Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto faced off with US  President Donald Trump on Twitter. They both took credit for cancelling a meeting they were scheduled to have in Washington DC on January 31.

Political commentators and the Mexican public had been asking for a  cancellation of the meeting after Trump decided to stick to his position  that Mexico will have to pay  for a wall along the US-Mexico border. The online standoff was seen an  embarrassment for President Pena, who has advocated for dialogue with  Trump.

It is time that the Mexican government switches gears and moves  forward with tougher policies on the US, seeking to break its economic  dependence on US markets. Not doing so will bring great perils to Mexico  and set a bad precedent for Latin America.

Economic dependence

For much of the 20th century, the Mexican state encouraged  nationalism based on the idea that Mexico was at its core a Latin  American country (not a North American one), sharing a common  revolutionary heritage with its southern neighbours.

In a radical departure from this ideology that gave birth to Mexico  on the eve of the 20th century, the Mexican government started improving  relations with the US in the 1990s. This change was led by a group of  US-educated technocrats who populated the Mexican government and pushed  the idea that Mexico's future lay north, neglecting relations with other  Latin American countries.

One of their main arguments was that looking north benefited Mexico  as the US economy was bigger and thus held better prospects for Mexico.

The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which Mexico, the US  and Canada signed in 1994, was the cornerstone of that political  consensus, paving the way for significant economic dependence.

As a result, Mexico's economy developed to cater overwhelmingly to US import needs; almost 80 percent of  Mexican exports now go north across the border.

Whole industries were dedicated to US consumer needs. For example, Mexico became the world's  seventh  biggest car manufacturer with support from the US and a steady supply  of US-made car parts; the vehicles it produces are almost exclusively  exported to the US. 

Economic dependence led to political acquiescence to US domination of  Mexico's foreign policy. In 2002, Mexico hosted the International  Conference on Financing for Development which a number of Latin American  leaders attended, including the late Cuban leader Fidel Castro.

Amid pressure from the US, then Mexican President Vicente Fox  called  the Cuban leader and asked him to only attend the leaders' lunch and  then leave in order to please US President George W Bush, who was also  in attendance. This sparked popular outrage in Mexico.

In more recent years, the US has played an important role in Mexico's  internal security decisions. As the number of Central Americans  attempting to get into the US surged, the US government provided  financial support to Mexico to help it detain and deport migrants en  route to the US. As a result, in 2016 the number of migrants detained in  Mexico increased threefold compared to 2012.

True to the tradition of his predecessors accommodating the US at any  cost, Pena tried to have a dialogue with Trump, despite his  anti-Mexican posturing.

In August 2016, while Trump was struggling in the polls, he invited  him to his office. The visit was widely criticised within Mexico and  prompted the organiser of the meeting, then Finance Minister Luis  Videgaray, to resign.

After Trump's election, Videgaray came back to the cabinet as foreign  minister. It was rumoured that he has close ties with Jared Kushner,  Trump's son-in-law and adviser, and was tasked to manage the  relationship with the new US administration.

New Mexican foreign policy

Mexicans are not happy with Pena's approach. They are very proud of  their heritage, their culture and its effect on the world, and see  Pena's weakness in front of Trump as humiliating.

It is imperative that Pena listen to his people and stand up to  Trump. It is time for the Mexican government to change its foreign  policy towards the US and be bolder in its approach.

Pena must be clear that Mexico will not tolerate Trump's tantrums. If  Trump decides to pursue his populistic policies, then Mexico must be  ready to seek alternatives and a future of its own. In doing so, Mexico  can lead with an example of how developing countries can break free from  the chains that tie them to industrialised powers.

Last Thursday's Twitter embarrassment, just like the August one, was  the result of Videgaray's actions. He should resign and Pena should  appoint an experienced diplomat who can introduce tough new policies to  stand up to Trump.

Mexico needs to be serious about leaving NAFTA. Mexico shouldn't be  willing to tolerate any embarrassment for the sake of staying within  NAFTA. The free trade agreement has brought positive results mainly to  the north of Mexico, but many swaths of the agricultural south have  deeply suffered from US competition. Small Mexican producers can't  compete with the US' subsidised industrialised farming.

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In today's interconnected world, there are vast markets that the  Mexican economy can tap into. China is one of them. Pena should consider  very seriously strengthening relations with China. In recent years  China has sought a closer relationship with Latin America, but Mexico  hasn't been a major part of this endeavour because of its US focus.

Mexico must also vow not to deport any foreign citizens in Mexico en  route to the US. Pena should immediately instruct all federal agencies  to stop detention and deportations of the 120,000 Central Americans who  cross Mexico annually trying to reach the US. The government should  provide shelter and humanitarian aid to them and stop mistreatment.

Mexico should set an example for the rest of the Latin American  countries to follow in facing an uncooperative US president and looking  for foreign policy alternatives.

If they don't do so, Mexico and other Latin American countries risk  becoming Trump's backyard and being continually humiliated. Relations  with the US are not as valuable as national sovereignty and that should  never be compromised on.

Miguel Guevara was born and raised in  Cuernavaca, Mexico. He holds a Master's degree in public policy from  Harvard University's John F Kennedy School of Government. He currently  lives and works in California, where he collaborates with Latino  community organisations.