Beyond Tariffs: The Struggle for Humanity's Future Between Socialism and Capitalism
跨越关税：社会主义与资本主义之间的人类未来之争

Introduction | 引言

In the 21st century, global economic tensions have escalated beyond mere trade disputes. At the heart of the China–US conflict lies a fundamental struggle: not only over who dominates global production, but over what kind of future humanity will pursue — capitalism or socialism.
在21世纪，全球经济紧张局势早已超越了传统的贸易争端。中美之间的冲突，本质上是对人类未来方向的争夺：是延续资本主义，还是探索社会主义道路。

I. Tariffs and Their Limits | 关税的逻辑与极限

From the Trump administration to the current political discourse, tariffs have become a central tool for the U.S. in attempting to 'decouple' from China and reindustrialize domestically. Yet economic logic reveals the inherent contradiction: increasing tariffs may hurt China’s exports, but they also significantly raise costs for American consumers, disrupt supply chains, and suppress domestic consumption.
从特朗普政府开始到当前的政治语境中，关税成为美国“与中国脱钩”、推动本土再工业化的核心工具。然而经济逻辑显示出其内在矛盾：提高关税确实可能打击中国出口，但同时也大幅推高美国消费者成本，扰乱供应链，抑制本土消费。

In a hypothetical example, if a washing machine imported from China costs $100 to make, but is reported at $200 in U.S. customs, a 50% tariff already adds $100. A second 50% round adds another $100. The price to the consumer jumps from $500 to $600, even without additional logistics or profit margins. The goal is to push firms to reshore manufacturing. However, with a long lead time, labor shortages, and political uncertainty, success is far from guaranteed.
以一台中国制造的洗衣机为例，成本仅100美元，海关申报价为200美元，第一轮50%关税增加100美元，第二轮再加100美元，最终价格从500美元上升到600美元，尚未考虑其他物流或利润因素。目的在于迫使企业将制造业回流美国，但考虑到建设周期长、劳动力紧缺与政治不确定性，这一目标远未确保能够实现。

II. The Dilemma of Global Capitalism | 全球资本主义的困境

High tariffs also produce unintended consequences. Chinese producers with high efficiency and scale can undercut competitors in other developing countries. As a result, these tariffs may help China eliminate rivals and consolidate its position in third-party markets, such as in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) regions.
高额关税也带来了意想不到的后果。中国制造商凭借高效率和大规模，有可能压倒其他发展中国家制造商。因此，这些关税在实际效果上，可能帮助中国在第三世界市场（如“一带一路”国家）消灭竞争者、巩固主导地位。

Thus, instead of weakening China, tariffs risk restructuring global trade in China's favor, albeit with short-term pain. Capitalism’s inherent contradiction — overproduction without matching consumption — leads to stagnation unless new markets or wars absorb the surplus. This makes the return of Cold War–style blocs, and even conflict over Taiwan, a conceivable capitalist response.
因此，关税非但没有削弱中国，反而可能在短期阵痛后促使全球贸易结构朝着对中国有利的方向转变。资本主义的内在矛盾——生产过剩而无法匹配消费能力——必然导致经济停滞，除非通过新市场或战争来消耗剩余产能，这也使得新冷战格局甚至台海冲突成为资本主义体系下的可预期应对方式。

III. Dignity or Dependency? | 尊严还是依附？

This raises a critical question: What matters more to a nation — economic convenience or sovereign dignity?
这引出了一个关键问题：对一个国家而言，经济便利更重要，还是主权尊严更重要？

If a nation kneels before economic coercion, it may gain short-term trade advantages, but it loses autonomy and sets a precedent for future subordination. It becomes a colony of money — nominally independent but in practice constrained by foreign capital, foreign markets, and foreign rules.
如果一个国家在经济胁迫面前屈服，也许能换取短期的贸易利益，但却失去了自主发展的权利，陷入未来被反复勒索的命运。这是一种“货币殖民地”——名义上独立，实质上却被外国资本、市场和规则牢牢控制。

China has chosen to endure the pain, maintain industrial sovereignty, and insist on an alternative path of development. From a Marxist standpoint, this is not just national pride — it is a historical materialist necessity. Only through struggle can a nation truly master its own productive forces and chart a course free from imperial dictates.
中国选择了承受阵痛，捍卫工业主权，坚持走不同于西方资本主义的发展道路。从马克思主义的视角看，这不仅是民族自豪感，更是一种“历史唯物主义”的必然要求。唯有通过斗争，一个国家才能真正掌握自己的生产资料，实现不受帝国主义干预的发展方向。

Conclusion | 结语

This is not just a trade war. It is a historic confrontation between two developmental logics — capitalism driven by capital accumulation, and socialism aiming for human-centered development. The question of the 21st century is no longer who sells the most, but who leads the way for the future of humanity.
这不仅仅是一场贸易战，更是两种发展逻辑的历史性碰撞：一方是以资本积累为导向的资本主义，另一方是以人民发展为核心的社会主义。21世纪的核心问题不再是谁销售最多，而是谁能为人类未来指明方向。