The US Air Force is caught between a rock of ever-tightening budgets and a hard place of rising calls for innovation and modernization as China races ahead with advanced fighter jets and a fast-expanding fleet.
This month, Air & Space Forces Magazine reported that US Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall highlighted the funding challenges faced by the Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter, Next-Generation Aerial Refueling System (NGAS) tanker and Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) drones at the Airlift Tanker Association Symposium held in Grapevine, Texas.
The report notes that Air Force leaders have said the US needs all three marquee programs to be prepared for a future air war with China. Kendall emphasized the need for “creativity” in future force structure due to budget constraints, despite these programs’ interconnected operational and affordability aspects.
He also noted the US Air Force’s struggle to modernize amid commitments to nuclear deterrent upgrades and the growing threat from China, particularly regarding precision missiles targeting US air bases and mobility platforms.
Kendall said the Air Force has used “a lot of tricks to squeeze more capability out of the same set of resources” and that this “has come at the expense of our ability to deal with our pacing challenge” of China.
The US Air Force secretary mentioned the necessity of a stealthy tanker to support combat air forces in contested territories and the importance of the US Space Force’s growth. The Air and Space Forces Magazine report also mentions that a US Senate blue-ribbon panel is reviewing NGAD requirements, with recommendations expected in December.
He stressed the urgency of increased investments to meet modernization needs and counter China’s military advancements, especially as Chinese President Xi Jinping has directed his military to be ready to seize Taiwan by 2027.
In assessing these US projects, Brandon Weichert argues in a May 2024 article for The National Interest (TNI) that the US Air Force’s development of sixth-generation fighter jets is unnecessary and a waste of resources.
Weichert asserts that these advanced warplanes, incorporating drones and AI, are speculative investments that may not significantly enhance US military capabilities.
Instead, he suggests that the US focus should be on developing space-based weapons platforms and enhancing existing fifth-generation fighters. He points out that simpler, more cost-effective unmanned systems could be more beneficial.
However, Dan Goure argues in an August 2024 Real Clear Defense article that the US must advance NGAD development to maintain air superiority. He highlights the need to replace the F-22, a late-1990s design, and emphasizes that only manned platforms, not drones, have the critical decision-making abilities needed in an intense electromagnetic warfare environment.
Drones, Goure argues, are limited, citing Israel’s April 2024 success in downing hundreds of Iranian drones and missiles, as many countries now deploy counter-unmanned aerial systems (C-UAS).
He also notes that other nations, including the UK, Japan, Italy (through the Global Combat Air Program), France, Germany, and Spain (via the Future Combat Air System), are progressing on sixth-generation fighters, with China and Russia following suit.
Goure asserts that Investing in NGAD will revitalize the US military aircraft industrial base and thus secure long-term technological superiority.
In contrast to the US, The War Zone reported this month that China had unveiled the Shenyang J-15T, an enhanced carrier-based fighter, at the China International Aviation & Aerospace Exhibition in Zhuhai.
The War Zone says the J-15T, equipped with advanced avionics, Chinese-made WS-10 engines and catapult launch compatibility, represents a significant upgrade over the original J-15.
It notes this new variant, capable of operating from both CATOBAR and STOBAR carriers, will serve aboard all of China’s aircraft carriers, including the latest Fujian, which uses an electromagnetic aircraft launch system (EMALS).
The report says the J-15T’s enhancements include a strengthened nose landing gear, a new wide-angle holographic heads-up display (HUD), and an active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar. These improvements allow the fighter to take off with a heavier payload of fuel and weapons, enhancing its operational capabilities.
Apart from unveiling the J-15T, The War Zone reported this month that China has officially unveiled the Shenyang J-35A, a land-based stealth fighter, ahead of its debut at the China International Aviation & Aerospace Exhibition.
The War Zone says the J-35A, previously seen only in unofficial images, is now confirmed to be of interest to the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF). The report mentions that the aircraft, which has been under development for years, is a variant of the FC-31, initially intended for export and carrier-based operations with the PLA Navy.
The report notes that the J-35A features several design elements inspired by the US F-35 but is not a direct copy. Differences include its twin-engine configuration and lack of short takeoff and vertical landing capabilities.
The report mentions that the J-35A is expected to complement the heavier Chengdu J-20 in the PLAAF, offering a more cost-effective and numerically superior option.
Further, The War Zone says the J-35A’s development also aims to boost China’s presence in the international fighter market, with potential export opportunities to countries restricted from purchasing Western designs.
As the US dithers in building its next-gen airpower, former US Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) Commander Admiral John Aquilino cautioned in a March 2024 testimony before the US Senate that China, now with the world’s largest navy in terms of ships, may soon have the world’s largest air force.
That raises the question of how a possibly outnumbered US Air Force can fight and defeat China in a potential future conflict in the Pacific, necessitating significant organizational and technical changes.
Defense One reported in February 2024 that the US Air Force is undergoing a significant restructuring to enhance readiness for potential conflicts with China, as announced at the Air and Space Forces Association 2024 Warfare Symposium.
Kendall and US Air Force Chief of Staff General David Allvin detailed the overhaul, which includes deploying entire wings, or “units of action,” rather than piecemeal squadrons. As stated in the report, the aim is to create cohesive combat units fully equipped for wartime tasks.
Defense One says the reorganization, part of the “Reoptimizing for Great Power Competition” initiative, introduces a new Integrated Capabilities Command to streamline modernization efforts and a renamed Airman Development Command to centralize force development.
Further, Timothy Walton and Mark Gunzinger point out in a March 2024 Breaking Defense article that the US Air Force faces significant challenges in the Indo-Pacific region, primarily due to the “tyranny of distance” and the need to sustain operations over vast areas while potentially being outnumbered by China’s military forces.
Walton and Gunzinger propose several solutions, such as enhancing the range of the F-35A Lightning II through an Engine Core Upgrade, pressing on with NGAD and CCA development despite the funding and other challenges, and acquiring longer-range weapons like the AIM-260 and stealthy tankers capable of penetrating contested zones for aerial refueling.
However, they caution that the US Air Force must balance these advancements with budget constraints and the need for cost-effective solutions to maintain a strategic advantage.
