India’s economic growth in the first three quarters of 2023-24 exceeded 8%, well above most optimistic projections. A LoknitiCSDS survey of youth in Delhi, however, indicates that headlines miss something. Eighty percent of the respondents said getting a job in the last two years was either difficult or very difficult. Growth’s not translating into adequate opportunity for youth.
Narrowing window: Jobs are the No. 1 economic and social issue. Let’s start with the big picture. The share of our working age population is about 63%. It’s expected to be stable for a while. This is the demographic window in which an economy can transform dramatically. East Asian tiger economies did that. The window was used to create a demographic dividend. Miss this opportunity, a country may stagnate.
Post-Covid scenario: The economy bounced back sharply and unemployment fell. But that’s just a part of the story. Two negative trends were visible in the jobs market. People moved back to agriculture, which really means limited earnings. Also, many of the new jobs were in the unstable category of self-employed, especially for women. These challenges have been highlighted again in a jobs report brought out this week by ILO and Institute for Human Development based on GOI data.
No market for young: India’s youth employment profile suggests a crisis. Share of youth who are not in employment, education or training has averaged 29.2% between 2010 and 2019. It’s the highest in South Asia. There’s a high proportion of unemployed educated youth even as industry complains of a shortage of labour for skilled jobs. Leave aside a few elite institutions, education in India is not a proxy for employability. To illustrate, about 3,700 PhDs applied recently for the post of a peon in UP police where Class V was the eligibility criterion.
Women not wanted: That’s the job market’s message. No surprise then that if 53.2% of the female workforce was self-employed in 2019, the proportion increased to 62% in 2022. Many are not even paid.
Stagnant earnings: Over the past decade the average monthly inflation-adjusted earnings of regular salaried and self-employed persons either declined or remained stable. This is corroborated by weak consumption data in the 8%+ GDP numbers.
The jobs crisis should be the priority of all political parties in this election season. But so far we haven’t heard of an effective strategy. Time’s running out.
