Current U.S. Federal Budget Deficit

The U.S. federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2019 is $985 billion. FY 2019 covers October 1, 2018 through September 30, 2019. The deficit occurs because the U.S. government spending of $4.407 trillion is higher than its revenue of $3.422 trillion.

Most people blame the deficits on entitlement programs. But that's only half the story. These enormous deficits were the result of four factors. Two of them are related to the recession.

First, the attacks on 9/11 led to the War on Terror. That almost doubled annual military spending. It rose from $437.4 billion in 2003 to a peak of $855.1 billion in 2011. That includes the defense department budget and off-budget emergency spending. It also includes spending for departments that support defense, such as Homeland Security, the Department of Veterans Affairs, and the National Nuclear Security Administration.

The Trump administration will set new records of defense spending. It is estimated to reach $874.4 billion in FY 2018 and $886 billion in FY 2019. Trump wants the additional funding to fight ISIS. Congress also granted a two-year reprieve from sequestration  for military spending. 

U.S. military spending is greater than those of the next 10 largest government expenditures combined. It's four times greater than China's military budget, and 10 times bigger than Russia's defense spending. It's difficult to reduce the budget deficit without cutting U.S. defense spending.

Second, mandatory spending has increased. That means benefit payouts for Social Security, Medicare, and other mandated programs. It's exceeded $2 trillion a year since FY 2011. These payments consume two-thirds of the revenue each year. Only an Act of Congress that amends a program's benefits can change them. That would require a majority vote in both houses and is unlikely to happen. Any reduction in benefits takes money out of the pockets of current beneficiaries. The powerful demographic of seniors would vote lawmakers out of office.

Third, the Trump tax cut will reduce revenue. It's reducing the personal income tax rate, corporate taxes, and small business taxes. These cuts total $1.5 trillion over the next 10 years. But the Joint Committee on Taxation said the cuts will stimulate growth by 0.7 percent annually. The increased growth will add revenue, offsetting some of the tax cuts. As a result, the deficit will increase $1 trillion over the next decade. 

The difference between the U.S. government and you is that the president and Congress overspend on purpose. That's for three reasons:

1. The more the government spends, the more it stimulates the economy. That's because government spending is itself a component of gross domestic product.

2. There are many other countries, such as China, that are willing to lend America the money.

3. Politicians get elected for creating jobs and growing the economy. They lose elections for raising taxes and unemployment.

A budget deficit is not an immediate crisis. In moderation, it increases economic growth. It puts money in the pockets of businesses and families. Their spending creates a stronger economy. That makes other countries happy to lend to the U.S. government. It has always paid the debt back.

It is a concern when the debt-to-GDP ratio approaches or exceeds 100 percent. At that point, owners of the debt become concerned. They worry that the United States won't make good on its debt. They had reason to be concerned in 2011 and 2013. That's when tea party Republican congressmen threatened to default on the U.S. debt. 

The government reduced the deficit for the FY 2017 budget. But it has no intention of eliminating it. The Office of Management and Budget forecasts that the deficit will become a surplus by FY 2027.  Any deficit reduction necessitates painful and hotly disputed spending cuts or tax hikes. That would be the first time the budget was balanced since President Clinton's administration.  

You should also be concerned when the economy is doing well. The government should be reducing the deficit in an effort to lower the debt. Deficit spending in a healthy economy will make it overheat. An economy that's churning too fast creates a boom and bust cycle. It always leads to a recession.