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送交者:  2018年04月22日20:08:37 于 [世界军事论坛] 发送悄悄话

Mexican presidential candidates face off in first debate with clear lead in polls for leftist leader          

MEXICO CITY —  On Sunday, the first debate ahead of Mexico's presidential elections is one candidate's to lose. He looks unbeatable.

The front-runner, whose economic proposals have unsettled investors, is Andrés Manuel López Obrador, commonly known as AMLO. He's pulling ahead of his nearest rivals in one poll by as much as 22 points, with just weeks left in the presidential campaign, according to Reforma newspaper. His approval rating is 48 percent.

"The main takeaway from our poll is that we have a clear favorite," said Lorena Becerra Mizuno, head pollster at Reforma. "And we have a clear second-place candidate, Ricardo Anaya" of the National Action Party with a left-leaning coalition led by the Party of the Democratic Revolution. "But the advantage is AMLO. His lead is overwhelming, and he has great possibilities to win."

A record audience is expected to watch or listen to the debate Sunday night from the Mining Palace in Mexico City's historic center as voters and players on both sides of the border mull over the early implications of a possible López Obrador victory.

<p>Andrés Manuel López&nbsp;Obrador, presidential candidate of the National Regeneration Movement Party, or MORENA, greets supporters during an campaign event on April 20&nbsp; in Mexico City. (Hector Vivas/Getty Images)</p>

Andrés Manuel López Obrador, presidential candidate of the National Regeneration Movement Party, or MORENA, greets supporters during an campaign event on April 20  in Mexico City. (Hector Vivas/Getty Images)

Among those watching will be Jose Manuel Pedroza, 30, a doctor in Mexico City. He remains undecided and is looking for a candidate who is "committed, decisive and with a clear vision on how to get Mexico moving again in the right direction."

Polls show that more than 80 percent believe Mexico is headed in the wrong direction.

In the U.S., López Obrador, representing the National Regeneration Movement Party (MORENA), may be best known for ominous signs he's sending about re-evaluating the way Mexico does business domestically and with folks from north of the border. He's vowing to end Mexico's co-dependency with its fickle neighbor, which lately, in the view of López Obrador and many others, is intent on treating Mexico like a piñata.  

He's worrying foreign investors, reminding some of 1938, when Mexico nationalized its oil industry. But AMLO is also known for managing to say the right things at the right time. Recently, in Ciudad Juárez, he said he wants a relationship with the United States based on respect and said he wasn't giving up on President Donald Trump and "his despicable attitude toward Mexicans."
Undecided voter Jose Manuel Pedroza plans to be glued to his TV set Sunday for the first debate.(Alfredo Corchado/The Dallas Morning News)                                
Undecided voter Jose Manuel Pedroza plans to be glued to his TV set Sunday for the first debate.
(Alfredo Corchado/The Dallas Morning News)

If it's any indication of the nerves bottled up over a possible López Obrador win, Mexico's currency — the peso — fell to its lowest rate, as much as 2.1 percent to 18.45 pesos per dollar, following the poll's findings and in anticipation of the debate.

"We should look for a signal from AMLO regarding which side of this divide he will ultimately favor," said Ricardo Ainslie, director of the Mexico Center at the University of Texas at Austin, referring to the fate of the North American Free Trade Agreement and other reforms passed under the Enrique Peña Nieto administration that opened the country for foreign investment. "Will he continue the brinksmanship that threatens to dismantle NAFTA, or will he simply push for an updating of the agreement?"

Much is riding on the agreement for Texas. As many as 1 million Texans  are in jobs tied to trade with Mexico.

"The incoming president will have to navigate an increasingly complicated diplomatic reality with the United States," said Monica Rankin, director of the Center for U.S. Latin American Initiatives at the University of Texas at Dallas. "All these issues involve Texas in significant ways."

For the entire campaign, and even before he formally announced his candidacy, López Obrador has led comfortably, towering over his rivals as Mexico's last hope to transform a country wracked by violence, corruption and insecurity, a nation where, despite booming trade and economic development, wages remain relatively the same 30 years after NAFTA. He rails against corruption so much that he recently reiterated that if he wins he won't live in Los Pinos, the presidential home, because the place is "bewitched, haunted" by so much corruption.

Presidential candidate Ricardo Anaya of the Forward for Mexico Coalition during a campaign rally in Tlalnepantla, Mexico State, Mexico, on Friday, April 20, 2018. Mexico will choose a new president on July 1.(Rebecca Blackwell/The Associated Press)                                
Presidential candidate Ricardo Anaya of the Forward for Mexico Coalition during a campaign rally in Tlalnepantla, Mexico State, Mexico, on Friday, April 20, 2018. Mexico will choose a new president on July 1.
(Rebecca Blackwell/The Associated Press)

"For now, this is looking like a landslide, not a close race," said Miguel Toro, a political consultant for the Woodrow Wilson Center's Mexico Institute.

His rivals are Ricardo Anaya of the PAN-PRD coalition, Jose Antonio Meade of the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, and two independent candidates — Margarita Zavala and Jaime "el Bronco" Rodríguez Calderón.

 If ever they stand a chance to make a dent in López Obrador's Teflon shield, it's during the debate Sunday evening. This is López Obrador's third attempt at winning the presidency, and in the past he's been less than spectacular during debates. For one debate, he was a no-show. 

"Clearly, both Meade and Anaya are at an advantage at the debates; Meade substantively and Anaya in terms of his debating skills," said Arturo Sarukhan, former Mexican ambassador to the United States. "It will be interesting to see whether López Obrador can keep his cool if cornered or if some of his proposals get challenged."

Analysts like Sergio Silva Castañeda, a Harvard-educated historian at the Autonomous Institute of Mexico, or ITAM, say the debate will mark the beginning of all-out assault on López Obrador.

"Usually debates aren't game changers," he said. "It is rare to see a debate that actually influences voting preferences in a substantial way. The important part of this process, however, is still to come."

Former first lady and independent presidential candidate Margarita Zavala during a rally at the start of her campaign in Mexico City on Friday, March 30.(Eduardo Verdugo/The Associated Press)                                
Former first lady and independent presidential candidate Margarita Zavala during a rally at the start of her campaign in Mexico City on Friday, March 30.
(Eduardo Verdugo/The Associated Press)

Mexico's National Electoral Institute announced the speaking order of the five presidential candidates based on a lottery. It also determines who will speak first, where each candidate will stand and even who gets to arrive first at the venue.

The result: Independent candidate Jaime Rodriguez, who was allowed to enter the race at the last minute by the electoral tribunal, will answer the first question by one of three journalist moderators. Meade will answer the last question.

Independent candidate Zavala will occupy the first spot on stage, and Meade will take the second. Center stage is Anaya from the center-right coalition.

Presidential candidate Jose Antonio Meade of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), and his wife, Juana Cuevas, during a campaign rally in Merida, Mexico, on Sunday.&nbsp;(Israel Leal/The Associated Press)                                
Presidential candidate Jose Antonio Meade of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), and his wife, Juana Cuevas, during a campaign rally in Merida, Mexico, on Sunday. 
(Israel Leal/The Associated Press)

Perhaps the biggest surprise is Meade, who remains stuck in third place in the polls. He has the least to lose and is  making bold moves, such as pledging that if he wins he will separate the federal security department from the interior ministry. He proclaimed that "criminals have surpassed the government."

The debate audience will include Mexicans living in the United States. The National Electoral Institute is still tabulating the number of Mexicans living abroad who will be eligible to vote, but early indications are the numbers will fall well below expectation. Nearly 700,000 registered to vote, but so far only 130,000 have actually activated their electronic voting cards to be able to cast a ballot.

Sarukhan argues that the voting process for citizens living abroad remains "too cumbersome and many of the Mexicans are not close enough to a consulate to do it, regardless. But apathy, and a disconnect between community-based organization leaders advocating for the vote and Mexican immigrants at large who have neither the motivation or desire, continues to bedevil the real political empowerment of the Mexican diaspora in the United States."

The overall numbers may not meet expectations, but Mexican Consul General in Dallas Francisco de la Torre said Mexicans living in North Texas represent an important long-term potential in elections. "One of the characteristics of this evolution is the moral political need they feel to actively participate in Mexico's daily life. They can clearly do this through their vote. That interest will only grow."

Independent presidential candidate Jaime "el Bronco" Rodriguez Calderon leaves after addressing the press at Mexico City international airport on April 11, 2018.&nbsp;(Getty Images<div><br></div><div><br></div>/<br>)

Independent presidential candidate Jaime "el Bronco" Rodriguez Calderon leaves after addressing the press at Mexico City international airport on April 11, 2018. 

(Getty Images




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