2016美国总统选举全美选情简析（再续；含最新预测）：

1、         仍如此前的分析与预测，唐纳德·特朗普（DJT）将赢得佛罗里达州（Florida；FL；29 选举人票（electoral votes；EVs）），并将稳赢北卡罗来纳州（North Carolina；NC；15 EVs）以及俄亥俄州（Ohio；OH；18 EVs）。

2、         仍如此前的分析与预测，DJT还将稳赢爱荷华州（Iowa；IA；6 EVs）、内华达州（Nevada；NV；6 EVs）与新罕布什尔州（New Hampshire；NH；4 EVs）。

3、         其它传统红色州（Blue（蓝）：民主党；Red（红）：共和党）或无一例外地仍为红州，或有极个别意外但不大可能影响以下的预测。

4、         预计DJT将至少赢得科罗拉多州（Colorado；CO；9 EVs）与密歇根州（Michigan；MI；16 EVs）中的一个；很可能同时赢得二者。

5、         预计DJT将至少赢得宾夕法尼亚州（Pennsylvania；PA；20 EVs）与佛吉尼亚州（Virginia：VA；13 EVs）中的一个；在理想情况下将同时赢得二者。

6、         暂无足够信息可以决定其它摇摆州或传统蓝州可能变红。

7、         综合以上所有信息，DJT将以291 或更多的EVs赢得2016年11月8日的大选。

8、         以上预测的一个重要前提是包括民意测验公司在内的主流媒体对DJT存在着系统性的偏见；仅以FL为例，最近一周内的五个民意测验结果显示他平均落后于希拉里·克林顿（HRC）三个百分点，但是参考了其它民意测验的综合分析却显示他将以至少2.6%的优势赢得佛州。这个例子虽无法证明同样的民意调查偏见在各个摇摆州都会存在，但是却提醒读者必须极为慎重、极为理性、极为睿智地对待这些信息。

9、         某些重要的信息源以及推理细节将在必要时贴出。

~acarefreeman

附：Part II of “Suggested Campaigning Strategies for the Final Days Before Election Day” Which Was Sent to Mr. Trump:

(5) Stay decisively on your campaigning messages & your opponent’s vulnerabilities, and be extremely disciplined with yourself. It is said that he who conquers the world is a great man, but he who conquers himself is a sage. Be both a great leader and a sage, Mr. Trump, and you will never let your supporters down, will you?

(6) Do not call it a win until after you have actually crossed the finish line, and just remember that even if only 1~2% voters make up their mind at the last moment, that would be still enough to make or break a win in some of the most fiercely contested battleground states. Keep vigilance with any type of voting irregularities, but please also remember that unless voting fraud happens in a very large scale, and happens across states, there is almost no way that your opponent can rob a victory from you.

(7) Take extraordinary care with your personal safety, and develop a cordial, respectful, and trustworthy relationship with all those around you especially with your security details. Just remember that because of the increasing likelihood that you are winning the general election, more and more people have come to live in despair. While it is important to continue to project a leadership image of being calm, confident, and inspiring, it also important to significantly enhance security measures wherever you go, and keep close contact, and coordination, with local campaign rally organizers and local law enforcement officials.

To be continued.