°æÖ÷£ººÚľÑÂ
¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡
 ¡¤ ¾ÅÑôÈ«ÐÂÃâÇåÏ´ÐͶ¹½¬»ú È«ÃÀ×îµÍ
 
¡¾ÕþÖΡ¿´óÖÚýÌåµÄÄÚ½¨Ã¬¶Ü
Ëͽ»Õß: eastwest 2018ÔÂ04ÔÂ10ÈÕ15:18:09 ÓÚ [ÊÀ½ç¾üÊÂÂÛ̳] ·¢ËÍÇÄÇÄ»°
»Ø  ´ð: ¡¾ÕþÖΡ¿´óÐýówµÄÄÚ½¨Ã¬¶Ü ÓÉ Ð¡Ð¡ÍÆÍÁ»ú ÓÚ 2018-04-10 14:27:36
¡¾ÕþÖΡ¿´óÖÚýÌåµÄÄÚ½¨Ã¬¶Ü
2018/03/18 11:30ä¯ÀÀ22,109Þ’Ïì70ÍƼö25ÒýÓÃ0
ÔÚ¾­¼Ã/ÕþÖÎ/ÐÄÀíѧÀÓÐÒ»¸öºÜÓÐÃûµÄʵÑ飺½ÌÊÚÔÚ¿ÎÌÃÉÏÄóöÒ»¸ö͸Ã÷µÄËܽº»ò²£Á§¹Þ£¬ÀïÃæ×°ÂúÁËСµ¯Ö飨»òÊÇÇòÐοÚÏãÌÇ£¬»òÊÇM&MÇÉ¿ËÁ¦£©£¬È»ºóÈ㨱ØÐëÊÇÎĿƵģ¬·ñÔò²»ÊǹÀ¼Æ£¬¶øÊǼÆË㣩ѧÉúÃDzÂÓжàÉÙ¸ö£¨±ØÐëÒÀÕղµÄ׼ȷ¶È£¬À´ËãÊÇÒ»´Î²âÑéµÄ³É¼¨£¬·ñÔòѧÉú²»Ò»¶¨ÓÃÐĺÏ×÷£»×¼È·¶È×îºÃÊÇÓöÔÊýµÄ¾ø¶ÔÖµÀ´Ë㣩¡£µÚÒ»²½ÏÈÈÃÿ¸öѧÉú×Ô¼º²Â£¬Ê±Ï޺ܽô£¬²»ÄÜÌÖÂÛ£»µÈ²Â²âµÄ½á¹ûÉϽÉÖ®ºó£¬ÔÙ¸øѧÉúÃÇ°ë¸öСʱ¹«¿ªÌÖÂÛ£¬Èç¹ûÓÐÖ¾Ô¸Õߣ¬¿ÉÒÔÉĮ̈Ñݽ²£¬·¢±í×Ô¼ºµÄÒâ¼û£¬È»ºóÔÙÊÕ¼¯Ò»´ÎÐÞÕýµÄ´ðèñ¡£
Õâ¸öʵÑéÒª±È½ÏµÄ£¬¾ÍÊÇÕû¸ö°à¼¶×ÜÔ¤²âµÄ£¨¶ÔÊý£©Æ½¾ù£¬ÊÇ·ñË湫¿ªÌÖÂÛ¶ø½Ó½ü»òÔ¶ÀëÕýÈ·´ðèñ¡£Òò ‘Õâ¸öʵÑéºÜÈÝÒ××ö£¬ËùÒÔÒѾ­±»ÖØÑ}ºÜ¶à´ÎÁË¡£Ëü¾ªÈ˵ĵط½ÔÚÓÚ£¬Ò»°ãÀ´Õh£¬ÌÖÂÛºóµÄв²ⷴ¶ø±ÈÔ­±¾µÄÖ±¾õÒª²î£¬¶øÇÒÌÖÂÛÔ½¾Ã¡¢Ô½¼¤ÁÒ¡¢Ô½³¹µ×£¬ÐÞÕýºóµÄ׼ȷ¶È¾ÍÔ½Ôã¸â¡£
´ÓÂß¼­ÉÏÀ´¿´£¬Õâ¸ö½á¹û²¢²»ÄѽâÊÍ£ºÃ¿¸öѧÉúµÄ²Â²â¹ÌȻһ°ã»áÓÐÏ൱µÄÎó²î£¨Error£©£¬µ«ÊÇÒò ‘ûÓÐÀíÓÉ´ó¼Ò¶¼Ò»Æð²Â¶à»ò²ÂÉÙ£¨Ò²¾ÍÊÇûÓÐÆ«²î£¬Bias£©£¬Ò»µ©ÓкܶàѧÉúÀ´×ö¶ÀÁ¢µÄ²Â²â£¬ÕâЩ²Â²âµÄƽ¾ùÖµ¾Í±ØÐë×ñÑ­ÖÐÑ뼫ÏÞ¶¨Àí£¨Central Limit Theorem£¬CLT£©À´½Ó½üÕýÈ·Öµ¡£Òò ‘CLT˵ƽ¾ùÖµµÄ´íÎóÓë¶ÀÁ¢²Â²âµÄÊýÄ¿£¨N£©Æ½·½¸ù³É·´±È£¬ËùÒÔ¾­¹ýÌÖÂۺ󣬸öÐÔÈáÈõ¡¢Ã»ÓÐ×ÔÐŵÄѧÉú»á·ÅÆú×Ô¼º¶ÀÁ¢µÄÒâ¼û£¬½á¹ûÊÇNÖµ±äСÁË£¬ÄÇô×ÔÈ»´íÎó¾Í·´¶øÔö´ó¡£
Õâ¸öʵÑéҪģÄâµÄ£¬ÕýÊÇÒ»°ãÆÕÂÞ´óеÄÕþÖÎÒâ¼û£¬ÔÚ¾­¹ý´óÐýÌåµÄÌÖÂÛÖ®ºó£¬ÊÇ·ñ»áÒò¶ø¸Ä½ø¡£ÈçÇ°ËùÊö£¬¼´Ê¹¼ÙÉèýÌåµÄ±à¼­ºÍ¼ÇÕߣ¨Ï൱ÓÚʵÑéÀïÖ÷¶¯±í´ï×Ô¼ºÒâ¼ûµÄѧÉú£©Ã»ÓÐ˽ÐÄ£¬ÄÇô³ý·ÇËûÃǶ¼ÊǾø¶ÔÀíÐÔµÄÕþÖÎѧ´óʦ£¬·ñÔòËûÃǺÃÐÄÐûÑïµÄÁ¢³¡±»¹ã ‘´«²¥Ö®ºó£¬ÈÔÈ»»áÔì³ÉÆÕÑ¡Öƽá¹ûµÄÍ˲½¡£ÕâÊÇÏÖ´ú´óÐýÌåµÄµÚÒ»¸öÄÚ½¨Ã¬¶Ü¡£
µ«ÊÇ×Ô´Ó19ÊÀ¼Í±¨Ö½¿ªÊ¼ÆÕ¼°£¬Êµ¼ÊÉϵĴóÐýÌ嶼ÊdzäÂú×ű¨ÉçÀÏ雵Ä˽Ðĺͱ༭¸öÈ˵ÄÆ«¼ûµÄ¡£¾ÍËã¶ÁÕßÃÇÓÐÄÜÁ¦¹ýÂËÕâЩBias£¬ÈκÎ˽ÓдóÐýÌå×îÖÕ»¹ÊDZØÐëÌֺöÁÕߣ¬ÈÃËûÃÇ×ÔÎҸоõÁ¼ºÃ£¬ÄÇôÒò ‘ÕâЩƫ¼ûÀ´×Ô¶ÁÕß±¾Éí£¨ÕâÒѾ­ºÍÇ°ÊöµÄʵÑé²»Ò»ÑùÁË£ºÏÖʵÀïµÄÕþÖÎÒâ¼ûÏÔÈ»ÊÇÖ÷¹ÛµÄ¡¢Ïà¶ÔµÄ£¬²»ÏñʵÑéÀïµÄÄǸöÎÊÌ⣬ËùÒÔ±ØÈ»ÓÐЩÏÈÌìµÄBias£©£¬µ±È»²»ÄÜÆÚÍûËûÃÇ×öʲô¹ýÂË¡£
Õâ¸öÏÖÏóµÄÀý×Ӻܶ࣬ÓÈÆäÊÇ°ÑÔðÈÎÍâÒÆ£¬ÏñÊÇÃÀ¹úÈËÔÚÌÖÂÛ ‘ʲô»áÓÐóÒ×Äæ²îµÄʱºò£¬¾ø¶Ô²»»áÏëҪŸÕæʵµÄÔ­Òò£¨Ö÷ÒªÊÇ1.ÃÀÔªÊǹú¼Ê´¢±¸»õ±Ò£¬¿ÉÒÔÇá󠡢ƾ¿ÕµØÓ¡£¬È»ºóÓÃÀ´ÂòÍâ¹úµÄʵ¼Ê×ʲúºÍÀͶ¯³É¹û£»2.ÖйúµÄÌåÖÆЧÂʸߣ»3.ÖйúÈ˸üÇÚÀÍ´ÏÃ÷£©£¬±ØÈ»ÊÇÒªÖ¸¿ØÖйú×÷±×£¬Òò ‘Õâ²ÅÊÇ×ÔÎҸоõ×îÁ¼ºÃµÄ½âÊÍ¡£ËùÒÔÃÀ¹úýÌ壬²»ÂÛ×óÓÒ£¬¶ÔóÒ×Äæ²îµÄ±¨µ¼¶¼ÓÐͬÑùµÄÆ«²î£¬È»¶øÕ⵱Ȼ»áÓÐʵ¼ÊÉϵÄÕþÖκó¹û¡£Õâ¸öЧӦҲ¾ÍÊÇÏÖ´ú´óÐýÌåµÄµÚ¶þ¸öÄÚ½¨Ã¬¶Ü¡£
ÎÒÔø¾­ÔÚÁôÑÔÀ¸Ìá¹ýºÜ¶à´Î£¬ÏÖ´ú´óÐýÌåÔ½ÊÇ·½±ã¡¢Æձ顢¶àÔª»¯£¬ÆÕÑ¡ÖƵĽá¹û¾ÍÔ½²î¡£ÔÚÖ»Óб¨Ö½µÄʱ´ú£¬»¹¿ÉÄÜÑ¡³öÁÖ¿Ï¡¢ÂÞ˹¸££»Ò»µ©ÓÐÁ˵çÊÓ£¬ÏñÊÇÂÞ˹¸£ÕâÑù²»Á¼ÓÚÐеIJзÏÕß¹ÌÈ»Á¬Ï붼±ðÏëÑ¡×Üͳ£¬Ñ¡Ãñ¸ü»áÖð²½°ÑÑ¡¾ÙÓëÓéÀÖäãëÈ£¬¼«¶È×·Çóһʱ»¶Àֵĺó¹û£¬×îÖÕ³öÍ·µÄ±ä³ÉÁËÀ׸ùÕâÑùµÄÑÝÔ±»òÉõÖÁTrumpÕâÑùµÄÕæʵÐãÃûÈË¡£×·¸ù¾Íµ×£¬ÎÊÌâÕýÊdzöÔÚ´óÐýÌåµÄÄÚ½¨Ã¬¶ÜÉÏ£ºÍ¬Ò»»¯Ê¹µÃ¼¸ÒÚÈË¿ÉÒÔ·¸Í¬Ò»¸ö´íÎ󣬶ø×·Çó×ÔÎҸоõÁ¼ºÃ¸üÊÇ´òÏûÁËÉç»á×ÔÎÒÐÞÕýµÄÄÜÁ¦£¬Ã¿ÏÂÓú¿ö£¬Ò»Â·´íµ½µ×¡£
ÒÔÉÏ»¹Ö»½²µ½µçÊÓ¡£¹ýÈ¥20¶àÄ껥ÁªÍøµÄÆÕ¼°£¬¸üÊÇʹ´óÐýÌå½øÈëÁËË«Ïò»¯µÄʱ´ú¡£Å·ÃÀ¾ÓÈ»»¹ÓÐÈËÒÔ ‘ÕâÊÇÃñÖ÷½ø»¯µÄÓÖÒ»²½£¬ËµÃ¿¸öÑ¡Ãñ¶¼ÓÐÁË×Ô¼ºµÄÉùÒô¡£ÆäʵÊÇÔìÒ¥¸ü¼ÓÈÝÒס¢êVÒ¥¸ü¼ÓÀ§ÄÑ£¬Æ«²îÒ²¾Í±»·Å´óµÃ¸ü¿ì¡¢¸ü¼«¶Ë¡£ÃÀ¡¢¶í»¥Ïàͨ¹ý»¥ÁªÍøÀ´Ó°Ïì¶Ô·½µÄÑ¡¾Ù£¨Í¨¶íÃű»ÃÀ¹úýÌå¹ã ‘±¨µ¼£¬µ«ÊÇÆäʵCIAÒ²³ÐÈÏ×Ô¼º¸ÉͬÑùµÄÊÂÀúÊ·¸üÓƾᢷ¶Î§¸ü¹ãšø£¬²Î¼ûhttp://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/374372-ex-cia-director-us-meddles-in-foreign-elections-for-a-good£©£¬ÊÇÓÐÐÄÈËÖ÷¶¯ÔìÒ¥µÄÀý×Ó£»µ«ÊǾÍËãûÓÐÍâ½çµÄ¶ñÒâµ·ÂÒ£¬»¥ÁªÍøµÄ¸ºÃæЧӦҲÊÇ¿ÉÒÔÓÿÆѧÀ´Ö¤ÊµºÍÁ¿»¯µÄ¡£
MITµÄLaboratory for Social Machines£¨Éç»á»úÖÆʵÑéÊÒ£©¸Õ¸ÕÔÚ¡¶Science¡··¢±íÁËһƪÐÂÂÛÎÄ£¨¡°The Spread of True And False News Online¡±£¬²Î¼ûhttp://science.sciencemag.org/content/359/6380/1146£©£¬Ñо¿Á˹ýÈ¥11ÄêµÄTwitterÐÅÏ¢£¬·¢ÏÖ¼ÙÏûÏ¢±»×ª·¢µÄ»úÂʱÈÕæÏûÏ¢¸ß6-10±¶£¬ÆäÔ­ÒòÀ´×Ô1£©¼ÙÏûÏ¢±ÈÕæÏûÏ¢ÐÂÆ棻2£©¼ÙÏûÏ¢µÄÄÚÈݸü¼ÓÁîÈË¿Ö¾å»ò·ßÅ­¡£ÕýÒòÈç´Ë£¬¼ÙÏûÏ¢²»µ«´«²¥µÃ¹ã¡¢´«²¥µÃ¿ì£¬¶ÔÏûÏ¢µÄ½ÓÊÕÕßÀ´Õh£¬¼ÙÏûÏ¢Ò²¸ü¼ÓÈÃÈËÓ¡ÏóÉî¿Ì£¬²¢ÇÒ¸ü¿ÉÄÜÓ°ÏìËûÃǵÄʵ¼ÊÐР‘·´Ó¦¡£
ÕâÊÇÏÖ´ú´óÐýÌåµÄµÚÈý¸öÄÚ½¨Ã¬¶Ü¡£¾¿ÆäÔ­Òò£¬ÊÇÒ»°ã¹«ÃñµÄÕþÖÎרҵ֪ʶºÍÀíÐÔ˼¿¼ÄÜÁ¦£¬±È¾ÉýÌåµÄ¼ÇÕߺͱ༭»¹ÒªµÍµÃ¶à£¬°Ñ´«²¥¹«¹²Ñ¶Ï¢µÄȨÁ¦½»µ½ËûÃÇÊÖÀ×ÔÈ»ÊÇÁÓ±ÒÇýÖðÁ¼±Ò£¬·ÅÈÎÒ¥ÑÔ³ä³âÁË¡£
ÕýÓÉÓÚ´óÐýÌåµÄÐí¶àÄÚ½¨Ã¬¶Ü£¬Ëü²»¿ÉÄܳɠ‘Íì¾ÈֱѡÖƵÄÁ¦Á¿£¬·´¶øÊÇÔì³ÉÎ÷·½ÏÖ´úÃñÖ÷¹¦ÄÜʧµ÷µÄÖ÷ÒªÒòËØÖ®Ò»¡£Ì¨ÍåÈ˳£³£×Կ䣬ŷÃÀýÌåҲżȻ»á°ý½±Ì¨ÍåµÄÐÂÎÅ×ÔÓÉ£¬ÕâÆäʵÊÇĪ´óµÄ·´·í¡£
¡¾ºó×¢Ò»¡¿ÁôÑÔÀ¸ÓÐÈË·´Ó¦£¬ËûÔŲ́ÍåµÄÆäËûÂÛ̳ÌÖÂÛÕâƪÎÄÕ£¬»ØÏìÁîËûÊ®·ÖÎÞÄΡ£ÎÒÏëÀûÓÃÕâ¸ö»ú»á£¬Ì¸Ò»Ì¸Ò»¸öÓйØÕâÕû¸ö²¿Âä¸ñµÄÊÂʵ£¬Ò༴ ‘ʲôÎÒÑ¡ÔñÒ»¸öСеÄƽ̨£¬ÍêÈ«²»ÊÔͼÍƹã×Ô¼ºµÄÉùÒô¸øÉç»á´óС£
2017ÄêʮһÔ£¬Ó¢¹úÐÄÀíѧ»á£¨British Psychological Society£©·¢±íÁËһƪÑо¿½á¹û£¨²Î¼ûhttps://digest.bps.org.uk/2017/11/13/very-intelligent-people-make-less-effective-leaders-according-to-their-peers-and-subordinates/£©£¬·¢ÏÖÈËÓëÈËÖ®¼äµÄ¹µÍ¨£¬Èç¹ûÖÇÉÌÏà²îÔÚ30ÒÔÉÏ£¬¾Í·Ç³£À§ÄÑ¡£ËùÒÔ×î³É¹¦µÄÉÌÒµÖ÷¹Ü£¬ÖÇÉ̶¼ÔÚ120×óÓÒ£¬ÕâÑùËûÃÇÓÐ×ã¹»µÄ²ÅÖÇÀ´´¦Àí´ó²¿·Öʵ¼ÊµÄÎÊÌ⣬ͬʱ»¹ÄÜÓë¶àÊýµÄÔ±¹¤×öÁ¼ºÃµÄ¹µÍ¨¡£
Õâ¸öÏÖÏó£¬ÆäʵÎÒºÜÔç¾ÍÖªµÀ£¬Ò²ÊÇÎÒÒ»±²×ÓµÄÀ§ÈÅ¡£ÎÒ¶ù×ÓËäÈ»»¹ÔÚ¸ßÖУ¬µ«ÆäʵѧµÄ¶¼ÒѾ­ÊÇ´óѧµÄ¿Î³Ì£¬²»¹ýËûµÄÖÇÉ̺ÍÎÒ»¹ÊÇÏà²î½ü30µã£¬ËùÒԾ;­³£Ì¸²»µ½Ò»¿é¶ù£»ËûÂèÂèµÄÖÇÉÌÓÖºÍËûÏà²îµÃ¸ü¶à£¬Á½¸öÈËÒ²¾Í¸üÊÇúaͬѼ½²¡£
µ±È»ÖÇÉÌÖ»ÊÇÒ»¸ö¼«¶Ë¼ò»¯µÄ´ú±í£¬ÈËÓëÈ˵ŵͨÓÐÆäËûµÄά¶È¡£ÎÒÒ»°ã¸ü×ÅÖØÓÚÀíÐÔºÍÂß¼­£ºÖ»ÒªÓÐÄÜÁ¦¡¢ÓÐÒâÔ¸×ñÑ­Âß¼­£¬¾Í²»»áÓк蹵£»·´Ö®£¬ÔÙÔõô´ÏÃ÷µÄÈË£¨ÀýÈçWitten»òÕßWeinberg£©£¬Èç¹ûȫƾÖ÷¹Û¡¢¸Õã¹×ÔÓã¬ÄÇôÎÒÒ²²»¿ÉÄܺÍËû´ï³É¹²Ê¶¡£
ÎÒдÕâЩÎÄÕ£¬Ëø¶¨µÄ¶ÔÏóÊÇ1%µÄ1%µÄÉç»á¾«Ó¢£»ºâÁ¿µÄ±ê×¼£¬¾ÍÊÇÀíÐÔ˼¿¼ÄÜÁ¦£¬ËùÒÔÔ­±¾¾Í²»ÊÇÃæ¶Ô´óеÄÌÖÂÛ¡£ Èç¹ûÎÒÃÇÒÀÂß¼­ËùµÃµÄ½áÂÛ£¬Î¥·´ÁËÕ⼸ʮÄêÀ´Á÷Ðеġ°ÃñÖ÷¡±¡¢¡°×ÔÓÉ¡±µÈ½ÌÌõ£¬ÎÒÏ£ÍûÎÒµÄÀíÐÔ¶ÁÕßÃÇÓÐÄÜÁ¦¼á³Ö¶ÔÊÂʵºÍÂß¼­µÄÐÅÈΣ¬´Ó¶ø°ÚÍѽÌÌõµÄÊø¸¿¡£±ðÍüÁË£¬ÎÒ²¢²»ÊǵÚÒ»¸ö×ßÂß¼­µÀ·¶øµÃµ½ÕâЩ½áÂÛµÄÈË£¬ÖйúµÄ¿×ÃϺÍÎ÷·½µÄPlato£¬ÔÚ2000¶àÄêÇ°¾ÍÒѾ­ÓÐͬÑùµÄÈÏÖª£»ÎÒËù×öµÄ£¬Ö»²»¹ýÊÇ°ÑÕâÌ×˼·£¬Ó¦ÓÃÔÚÏÖ´úÉç»áµÄϸ½ÚÉÏ°ÕÁË¡£
¡¾ºó×¢¶þ¡¿ÕýÎÄÀïÖ÷Òª¼ÙÉèûÓÐÈËÓÐÐÄ¡¢¹ÊÒâÈ¥ÀûÓôóÐýÌåÉÏÔìÒ¥ÈÝÒס¢êVÒ¥ÄѵÄÌص㣬µ«ÊÇʵ¼ÊÉç»áÀ±ØÈ»»áÓÐÕâÑùµÄÆóͼ£¬ÕþÖÎÉϵÄĨºÚÓÈÆä¼òµ¥¡£×î½ü¸ÕÆعâµÄÒ»¼ÒÓ¢/ÃÀ¹ú¼Ê¹«Ë¾Cambridge Analytica¾ÍÊÇÈç´ËµÄÒ»¸öרְÆóÒµ£ºÈç¹ûÐèÒª´ò»÷ÕþÖÎÉÏ»òÉúÒâÉϵĶÔÊÖ£¬¿ÉÒÔ¹ÍÓÃÕâ¼Ò¹«Ë¾À´°²ÅżËÅ®»ò½ðÖ÷ÑuÔì³óÎÅ£¬¼´Ê¹±»º¦Õ߾ܾø£¬Ö»ÒªÓÐÁËÕÕƬ£¬Ò»Ñù°Ù¿ÚĪ±ç¡£ÎÒ²»ÏëÏêϸÖØÑ}ϸ½Ú£¬Çë´ó¼Ò×ÔÐÐÉÏÍøËÑË÷¡£


0%(0)
0%(0)
±ê Ìâ (±ØÑ¡Ïî):
ÄÚ ÈÝ (Ñ¡ÌîÏî):
ʵÓÃ×ÊѶ
±±ÃÀ×î´ó×îÈ«µÄÕÛ¿Û»úƱÍøÕ¾
ÃÀ¹úÃû³§±£½¡Æ·Ò»¼¶´úÀí,»¨Æì²Î,άËûÃü,ÓãÓÍ,ÂÑÁ×Ö¬,30ÌìÍË»õ±£Ö¤.Âò°ÙÃâÓÊ.