I doubt 3/1 hard headline.

The negotiation is more likely concluded when both parties have the desire, the willings and the proper bargin chips. If one side believe it has all the bargin chips, no deal will be made. In the case of trade talk, the US side still believe it has all the bargin chips and still believe it can push China to come back for a deal. That tells us no deal will be made. When China's economy comes out of slow down, and US shows the weakness (a. economy slows, b. either consumer or business cannot support the continuation of huigher tarrif, c. shaking grass roots support ) and is under political pressure (election cycle for example), then the real deal could have been made.

It takes few more month to see all the puzzles coming together. 

Second half of this year is more than like to have a real deal.