WLIG跌到去年低值，通常都导致经济衰退，但至今没发生，公司盈余报告不坏。看今天的联储褐皮书，大致可以理解为何WLIG大幅下跌，但经济仍没衰退。老道的理解是由于房贷受目前房产市场的收缩的影响，金融监管加强，和欧洲债务问题三大因素扭曲了WLIG，导致这个金融指标特别熊。可是现在银行没钱公司却有钱，所以经济暂不受影响，没衰退，问题提是消费者手上也没钱，导致消费者指数大跌，月底鬼节后的消费季节将显出问题，可能最终把经济拉进衰退。



ZT: The economy is losing steam across much of the nation, but is still growing and not in recession, according to the latest outlook from the Federal Reserve.

Wednesday's release of the so-called Beige Book, which is a summary of outlooks from the 12 district banks from across the country, certainly didn't portray a robust economy.

"Many districts described the pace of growth as 'modest' or 'slight' and contacts generally noted weaker or less certain outlooks for business conditions," said the Beige Book report.

But amid growing fears that the economy has already fallen into a new recession or is about to do so, the Fed's report said growth was still present in most of the country.

"Overall economic activity continued to expand in September," said the Fed, as it said consumer spending was up in most districts and business spending is also increasing "somewhat."

The central bank said a few districts even reported improvement in the long-suffering construction and real estate industries. And it said cost pressures are easing in the majority of districts.

But financial activity is declining in much of the country with loan volumes either flat or down slightly in most districts, an indication of weak confidence and lowered business investment. And there was little good news for unemployed job seekers.

"Hiring was being restrained by elevated uncertainty or lower expectations for their future growth," said the Fed.

The Richmond and Chicago districts reported retailers reducing their seasonal hiring plans due to concerns about a weak holiday shopping season, although the New York district reported an increase in seasonal hiring.