(Kitco News) - Gold prices ended the U.S. day session solidly lower and hit a fresh five-week low Monday. Fresh technical selling was featured as April Comex gold dropped back below its key 200-day moving average. April gold last traded down $18.10 at $1,648.70 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted down $19.60 at $1,648.00. March Comex silver last traded down $0.506 at $30.935 an ounce.
Gold prices were under modest pressure in overnight trading and then those losses were extended at the New York futures opening after sell stop orders were hit below what was important near-term technical support at the late-January low of $1653.20.
Most Asian markets were closed Monday for the Lunar New Year celebration. China is on holiday all week for the Lunar New Year. That may be slightly bearish for the gold market as it could limit physical buying interest this week, due to demand from China slowing during its holiday season.
Later this week the Group of 20 nations meets in Moscow. A main topic will be currency values as many industrialized nations have in recent months, or longer, worked to devalue their currencies to revive their economic growth. There is growing concern that “currency wars” could break out if there is not some form of agreement reached soon by the major nations. At present, Japan is seen as the major instigator as the yen continues to plummet in value. Reports during the weekend said the U.S. and European Union finance officials are considering issuing a joint statement on the matter, designed to ease growing worries and to send a warning to other countries. If the major countries cannot come to meaningful agreement on the matter and continue to work to devalue their currencies, that could become a major bullish force for the gold market, which is viewed by many traders and investors worldwide as a safe-haven “hard currency.”
In other news, the OECD said in a report Monday that the European Union debt crisis is stabilizing amid Euro zone economic improvement. The group also said there will be economic growth divergence in the near future, with the U.S., U.K., Japan and Brazil showing economic growth, while China, Canada, France and India are set for economic weakness in the coming months.
The U.S. dollar index traded near steady Monday but did hit a fresh four-week high overnight. The greenback bulls have gained some fresh upside near-term technical momentum recently, but the bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices were higher Monday afternoon. The crude oil bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The bullish near-term technical posture in crude oil is a supportive underlying element for the precious metals.
There were no major U.S. economic data released Monday. The pace picks up a bit Tuesday.
The London P.M. gold fixing is $1,652.00 versus the previous London P.M. fixing of $1,668.25.
Technically, April gold futures prices closed nearer the session low Monday and hit a fresh five-week low. Prices also dropped below the key 200-day moving average, which comes in at $1,670.00 level. Fresh near-term chart damage was inflicted as price action Monday saw a bearish downside “breakout” from a choppy and sideways trading range on the daily chart. Bears now have the slight near-term technical advantage. The gold bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the February high of $1,687.00. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the January low of $1,627.90. First resistance is seen at $1,660.00 and then at Monday’s high of $1,670.30. First support is seen at Monday’s low of $1,644.10 and then at $1,640.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 4.5
March silver futures prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh three-week low Monday. Bears have gained the slight near-term technical advantage in silver. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $31.935 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $30.745. First resistance is seen at $31.00 and then at $31.25. Next support is seen at Monday’s low of $30.82 and then at $30.745. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.
March N.Y. copper closed down 350 points at 372.45 cents Monday. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh two-week low. Copper bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 384.80 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at of 364.05 cents. First resistance is seen at 375.00 cents and then at Monday’s high of 376.90 cents. First support is seen at Monday’s low of 370.80 cents and then at 368.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.
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