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好消息和坏消息
送交者: eachus 2011月03月19日17:15:29 于 [世界股票论坛] 发送悄悄话
回  答: 两个龙头对碰, LDK和GCL的对比 eachus 于 2011-03-19 16:20:55
改错, LDK硅料Q3产量9600吨 ===》 Q3产量960吨, Q4产量 1,925吨。

================(Lowest costs on Earth)=======================
LDK solar 下游( Module)成本:
1瓦 需要硅料5。8克(我算6克), 硅料$33/kg = $0.21/w
硅片成本 = 硅料$0.21/w + 加工$0.25/w = $0.46/w
LDK Module成本:=  硅片$0.46/w + cell 加工$0.20/w + Module 加工$0.20/w = $0.86/w

LDK Q4 CC Transcipt :
We are confident of our technology path towards the lowest cost of production that we are aiming at the production cost below $0.90 per watt in our R&D integration efforts in this year.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/258893-ldk-solar-ceo-discusses-q4-2010-results-earnings-call-transcript?source=yahoo


================(wafer costs and ASP)============
LDK
硅片的ASPQ3Q4还是$0.86/w,$0.87/w, 2011年前半ASP 涨上到$0.90/w,
不要看它只涨3分,
LDK 硅片的成本在每一个季度都在下降。
成本
在下降,出厂价在上升。 另外, LDK 硅片(4寸)在2010年是3.8 w 一片,
2011年新的产品是
4.1 w 一片, solar efficiency 在提高。 真是好消息!!!
 

I see. Just to clarify, wafer, you said you expect about $0.90 plus in the first half of they year?

Jack Lai

Yeah. We see the first quarter is around -- still around $0.90 level and just based on 3.8 watts per piece. So if -- this year, we are starting to change our wafer to 4.1 watts per piece. So if you are selling at same price per piece -- the watt space per wafer is around 8% to 9% lower.


================(龙吃鱼,跟中国斗成本的下场)=======================
Sun Power(SPWRA)
下游( Module)成本:  1.71/w  (2010 Q4)  (效率18% - 20%) 
First Solar (FSLR) ( Module)成本:  0.75/w  (2010 Q4)  效率11% solar efficiency.
LDK solar 下游( Module)成本: 0.90/w  (效率18% - 19%)  2011年底
FSLR的 Module效率低,安装成本贵了0.40/w-0.50/w比其他的 效率18%Module。
如果
LDK卖出Module在$1.50/w,   FSLR要哭了, 它只能卖 $1.00/w到$1.10/w
FSLR的营收就丢很多, profit 也去了一半多。  SPWRA也活不下去了。

Sanjay Shrestha – Lazard Capital Markets

Got it. Two quick follow-ups for me, if I may. First one is, in terms of your module business, right. Two part question on that. One, what kind of pricing are you getting in China versus here up in the second half of 2011 and who are you using for [encapsulated] supplier?

Jack Lai

Yeah. For second half here in China, we can still get a module price around $1.50 to $1.55 range and in other areas, we still not decided price in second half year for Europe and for U.S. But in China, not normally, we’ll get a price, around $1.50 to $1.55 for the module price for second half of the year and the customers are willing to pay for some volume.




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    波音的东西 - eachus 03/19/11 (262)
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