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| 送交者: eachus 2010月09月04日20:10:23 于 [世界股票论坛] 发送悄悄话 |
| 回 答: solar stocks on fire 由 eachus 于 2010-09-03 08:47:40 |
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图形分析 http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=ldk&ty=c&ta=1&p=d 老师提义 http://www.investopedia.com/university/charts/charts3.asp ---------- 基础分析 S&P rating and comments: <<Our Strong Buy opinion reflects valuation and our belief that LDK will see robust demand for its wafers and modules. We expect LDK's vertical integration strategy and aggressive capacity expansion to result in greater economies of scale over the long term, as it seeks to be the low-cost global wafer producer. In addition to increasing its wafer and module capacity, LDK also plans to initiate cell production, with a target of 480 MW of cell capacity by the end of 2011.We expect the company to have 18,000 metric tons of polysilicon capacity with a production cost/kg of $30 to $35 by 2011 year end. Also, we see a vast improvement in future cash flow, as most of its polysilicon business investment is complete.We project a more stable pricing landscape for wafers and modules given the favorable supply/demand picture.>> CEO interview: http://solar.nengyuan.net/2010/0903/20451.html Company presentation 9/2/2010: revenue: $3.+ Billion FY. 2011. (was $1B 2009, $2B est 2010) silicon production costs: down to $30/kg next year, with the average over the year of being $35. silicon production: 8,000 to 10,000 mT of poly next year. LDK silicon grass profit: LDK may make 300s on millions on poly alone. ---------- personal observation: LDK most current profit from wafer, expect 2.6Gw x $.15 = $390 million next year. Solar cell and modules will add some hundred millions. 15c gross profit is conservative estimate, currently has $0.26/w gross profit on wafer. In total, the company is going to make $300M (from silicon) + $390M (wafer) + $120M (cell) + $120M (modules) = $930M gross profit next year. Guess that LDK has market cap $978 million today. 基础分析: growth, industry leadership, size, profit, value 都通过了。 我买了点,在$7又加了点。 完了。 |
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