投资的逻辑：灾难与机会 投资，不管是股市还是实体，都是要么从价格差异，要么从现金流（利润）来获得收益。股票投资，更多时更多人，在乎股价上升中的获得收益：买低卖高。 于是，大事件前后对应的机会，就显得很重要。 记得2007年夏天我回国时，在飞机停靠日本成田机场时，认识过一位住在佛罗里达的华裔，当时，他刚好倾其所有买了一块地，计划建房子。正在忙着搞设计。 他是搞建筑设计的，看多了他人做类似生意的成功故事，最终决定自己做。 大家都知道后来发生了什么。这位朋友的结果自然可想而知。 他错在哪里：看的太久，对手太晚，或者是出手太早。 如果他等五年到了2012年后动手，结果会大不相同。 或者早五年，在2002年时干！ 在2011年之后，我认识了不少的，住在我附近的人，到遥远的佛罗里达去投资买房，今天问到的人，都说已经有大概百分之三十左右的升值。如果现在再去买，还有多少机会呢？ 靠买房子赚钱，不仅仅只是在国内有机会！在哪里都有。 同时，也有一位朋友，在2006年时开始买地皮建房，2008年底，房子造好了，很漂亮，也花了百万，而此时，附近的房子却在以六十万的要价出售。直到今天，也恢复的不多。 说这许多，归根到底就是一句话：投资的机会选择，特别重要！ 现在，股市高昂了很多年，但是，还是有不少的行业，因为这样那样的原因，股价一路低走，公司的业绩到还不错。在牛市时下跌，自然有它的原因，但同时，里面的一些原因，有时却是市场过度反应的结果。市场有个特点：一旦有风吹草动，卖了再说！ 像亚马逊吓坏了几乎所有的零售商；鸡翅膀批发价高涨，吓坏了买鸡翅膀的餐馆。 有些问题是持久的，有些是短期和暂时的。巴菲特一直在强调：购买陷入暂时困境的好公司股票！还有，在别人惊慌时自己大胆点！ 最近几场飓风，搞得人心惶惶，也制造了不少的损失。又得有失，谁是受灾者谁是得益者，很多投资高手会从中找到机会。如果飓风给石油提炼造成了危害，那么，里面有机会吗？这样的危害只能是短期的。 飓风之后，必然有大量的重建需求，谁会在真正重建之中得益？ 飓风带来损失巨大，保险公司一定正在满地找牙，都处找裤子，有机会吗？ 下面是关于建筑维修的机会。类似的会很多。大家有心的话认真找，一定有机会。 记住，赚钱了请我喝酒！烈酒，是我的最爱！ 附 录： Can Hurricanes Provide A Boost To Home Improvement Companies? 9/6/17 | TREFIS Home improvement companies Home Depot and Lowe’s seem to be ready for the hurricane season even if the residents are not. With hurricane wind speeds reaching epic proportions, consumers have been flocking to grocery and hardware stores to stock up on the necessary supplies. According to Home Depot, once a storm such as Irma is spotted, the company alerts the stores in the potential strike zone, and starts mobilizing resources to that area. A majority of these supplies reach the stores through distribution centers, which have been pre-loaded with hurricane supplies well ahead of the hurricane season. Similarly, for Lowe’s, the company stated it had shipped over 325 truckloads of products to Florida ahead of the storm, and continue to expedite such shipments in order to aid the customers to prepare better for the storm. How Home Improvement Companies Benefit from These Devastating Hurricanes Early estimates of the damage done by Hurricane Harvey has been pegged at billions of dollars. Hannover Re, one of the largest reinsurers in the world, estimated losses of $3 billion just on insured items. Meanwhile Enki Research, which calculates the costs of hurricanes, tsunamis, and other natural disasters, has estimated Harvey to cost anywhere between $48 billion and $75 billion. Such a disaster is bound to affect the overall economy. For reference, while Hurricane Katrina cost an estimated $108 billion, according to University of Texas professor Bernard Weinstein, the damage and its economic impact totaled close to $250 billion. Moreover, the US economy grew at 3.8% in the quarter before the storm hit, but plummeted to just 1.3% in the aftermath. As Hurricane Harvey and Irma are expected to devastate many houses, there will be a greater need to fix these houses post the storms. Such a scenario will boost the demand for products of home improvement companies such as Home Depot and Lowe’s, which cater to not only the do-it-yourself (DIY) segment, but also professionals in the home improvement/remodeling and construction space. Home owners face the likelihood of severely damaged properties, necessitating the demand for home improvement equipment and materials. Moreover, since the majority of the properties in the flood affected areas are without insurance, people will be forced to pay out of their pockets for the repair work. Hence, a substantial portion of the work can be expected to be conducted by the DIY segment, which is a core customer base for both Home Depot and Lowe’s. Even prior to the storms, the companies had been selling large volumes of small-ticket items such as bottled water, tarps, and straps, as well as larger ticket times like fans, blowers, air conditioning units, and generators. According to projections by Planalytics, Hurricane Harvey could cost retailers as much as $1 billion in lost sales. However, careful planning and ample preparedness can help Home Depot and Lowe’s to see a sales boost. According to Home Depot, after Hurricane Sandy hit the New Jersey shores in October 2012, the sales attributed to the storm came in at $242 million in the fourth quarter, which was $112 million higher than the sales related to Hurricane Irene in the same period a year prior. Furthermore, the tailwinds from the storm-related sales continue well after the quarter in which it hits, a consequence of which will be that these companies’ sales may receive an uplift for the remainder of FY 2017. （转载请注明出处：汪翔的《万维网》博客） | 
