这几天的卢布大贬值我们很多人都会觉得很奇怪：西方的制裁早就有了，卢布一直也没有这么贬过，怎么突然就“激流直下三千尺”了呢？而且，也不见俄罗斯指责西方国家的“破坏，捣乱”，各位是不是觉得很奇怪？

好奇之下，上网看了看报道，才发现了原来还真是“不做死，就不会死”。我看了一下纽约时报等媒体的报道才明白：俄罗斯的央行自己引发的这次大贬值。

事情要从石油价格高的时候说起：俄罗斯的国有大石油公司在油价高的时候觉得自己财大气粗，到处并购，投资，没有现金怎么办？到西方银行贷款。这些大石油公司不仅仅是简单的国有商业公司，管理层都是和普京们有千丝万缕的联系的，所以他们做事有恃无恐。

最近有的贷款到期需要还了，石油公司没有多少“余粮”，也不想动用自己的存款，于是就找俄罗斯的央行。让央行印钱给他们来还债。这种官商勾结的体系很容易打通关节，事情就成了。

可是，金融市场的人一看不干了。你这货币发行没有个准则，把门，随便就可以印，正经肉变成了注水肉。这货币没有信誉了，谁还要呢？这是纽时的原文

According to analysts, the ruble’s fall on Monday was sparked by word of an opaque deal involving the central bank and the state-controlled oil company, Rosneft. The well-connected business executive running the company, Igor I. Sechin, a longtime associate of Mr. Putin, had apparently persuaded the central bank to effectively issue billions of new rubles to his company to help cover debts.

肉的质量是一回事，可你不能随便注水呀。政权在握，想怎么干你们说了算，想怎么注水就怎么注水。可是投资者呢？市场呢？凭什么要买你注水的账？于是。。。。。

（部分原文）
Rosneft, for example, had been clamoring for months for a government bailout to refinance debt the company ran up while making acquisitions when oil prices were high. Because of sanctions, those loans cannot be rolled over with Western banks. Debt payments are coming due later this month.

Relying only on the company’s own cash reserves would disrupt oil development projects that Russia is relying on for future revenue. With the oil giant in a bind, the central bank ruled that it would accept Rosneft bonds held by commercial banks as collateral for loans.

Rosneft issued 625 billion rubles about $10.9 billion at the exchange rate at the time, in new bonds on Friday. The identities of the buyers were not publicly disclosed, but analysts say that large state banks bought the issue.

When these banks deposit the bonds with the central bank in exchange for loans, Rosneft will have been financed, in effect, with an emission of rubles from the central bank. The deal roiled the ruble on Monday, according to analysts.

The reason for Monday’s currency crash is “well known,void(0);” Boris Y. Nemtsov, a former deputy prime minister who is now in the political opposition, wrote on his Facebook page. “The central bank started the printing press to help the Sechin-Putin business, and gave Rosneft 625 billion newly printed rubles. The money immediately appeared on the currency market, and the rate collapsed.” Rosneft, in a statement, denied it had exchanged funds raised from the bonds for hard currency.

“This is a result of aggression and insanity in foreign policy, which led to sanctions,” Mr. Nemtsov wrote of the ruble’s collapse.